{ "dataset": "Ontario autism waitlist yearly series and policy milestones", "description": "Yearly OAP registration series (2019–2026) with per-point confidence and source URLs, the 2018–2026 policy milestone chronology, and provincial context comparisons.", "publisher": "End The Wait Ontario", "publisherUrl": "https://www.endthewaitontario.com", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "sourceOfTruth": "lib/data/waitlist-trends.ts", "statsSsotLastVerified": "2026-08-10", "yearlySeries": [ { "year": 2019, "label": "2019 (approximate baseline)", "totalRegistered": 23000, "waitingForFunding": null, "receivingCore": null, "averageWaitYears": null, "budgetMillions": null, "confidence": "approximate", "source": "FAO MCCSS context / historical OAP program data", "sourceUrl": "https://fao-on.org/en/report/fa2305-mccss/", "note": "Approximate pre-reform baseline; exact government figure not published" }, { "year": 2023, "label": "2023 (FAO reported)", "totalRegistered": 70176, "waitingForFunding": null, "receivingCore": null, "averageWaitYears": null, "budgetMillions": null, "confidence": "verified", "source": "Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, MCCSS Spending Plan Review (2023-24)", "sourceUrl": "https://fao-on.org/en/report/fa2305-mccss/", "note": "FAO reported 70,176 registered in the 2023-24 fiscal-year context. Its 19,966 figure is an enrolled Core Clinical Services measure, not a comparable active funding-agreement count, so the other measures are left unavailable." }, { "year": 2024, "label": "2024 (mid-year FOI)", "totalRegistered": 72871, "waitingForFunding": null, "receivingCore": null, "averageWaitYears": null, "budgetMillions": null, "confidence": "verified", "source": "CBC News FOI - OAP bi-weekly progress reports (mid-2024 baseline)", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/autism-services-funding-ontario-9.7143531", "note": "CBC reported 72,871 registered in a mid-2024 progress-report column. The release does not provide a comparable active-funding count for this row, so waiting, funded, budget, and average-wait cells remain unavailable." }, { "year": 2026, "label": "Jan 2026 (CBC FOI)", "totalRegistered": 88175, "waitingForFunding": 67509, "receivingCore": 20666, "averageWaitYears": null, "budgetMillions": null, "confidence": "verified", "source": "OAP bi-weekly progress report, January 7, 2026 (CBC News FOI)", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/autism-services-funding-ontario-9.7143531", "note": "CBC News reported the January 7, 2026 progress-report column: 88,175 registered, 20,666 funded, and 67,509 without funding. The report does not establish an official average wait or budget for this snapshot." }, { "year": 2026, "label": "Mar 2026 (MCCSS FOI)", "totalRegistered": 89799, "waitingForFunding": 69166, "receivingCore": 20633, "averageWaitYears": null, "budgetMillions": null, "confidence": "verified", "source": "OAP bi-weekly progress report, March 4, 2026 (MCCSS) - via the Ontario Autism Coalition (FOI release CSS2026-0749)", "sourceUrl": "https://www.endthewaitontario.com/data-hub", "note": "MCCSS reported the March 4, 2026 progress-report column: 89,799 registered, 20,633 with active funding agreements, and 69,166 waiting. The report does not establish an official average wait or budget for this snapshot." }, { "year": 2026, "label": "May 2026 (MCCSS/OAC FOI)", "totalRegistered": 91974, "waitingForFunding": 71263, "receivingCore": 20711, "averageWaitYears": null, "budgetMillions": null, "confidence": "verified", "source": "MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026 - obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information, published July 2026", "sourceUrl": "https://ontarioautismcoalition.com/", "note": "Primary canonical data point (latest). MCCSS reported 91,974 registered, 20,711 with an active Core Funding Agreement (an administrative status, not proof of service receipt), and 71,263 waiting. The same release separately reports 24,417 enrolled in Core Clinical Services; this series tracks active agreements so the comparison remains consistent. No official average wait or budget is attached to this snapshot." } ], "policyMilestones": [ { "year": 2018, "title": "Ford Government Elected", "description": "Progressive Conservative government elected. Campaign had promised to maintain autism services. Within months, program restructuring began.", "type": "program-change" }, { "year": 2019, "month": 2, "title": "Flat-Rate Funding Announced", "description": "Government announced a flat-rate funding model (20,000 dollars a year for children under 6, 5,000 dollars a year for school-age children, as announced in 2019) regardless of individual therapy needs. This replaced the previous needs-based IBI model.", "type": "funding-cut" }, { "year": 2019, "month": 3, "title": "Largest Autism Protest in Ontario History", "description": "Thousands of parents and children descended on Queen's Park. Described as the largest autism protest in Ontario history. Government announced a policy review within days.", "type": "protest" }, { "year": 2019, "month": 10, "title": "Needs-Based Funding Promised", "description": "Government announced a return to needs-based funding. New OAP structure announced. Implementation timeline and details left unclear, with phased rollout stretching years.", "type": "announcement" }, { "year": 2020, "month": 3, "title": "COVID-19: Services Suspended", "description": "In-person autism therapy services suspended across Ontario. Children already on long waitlists lost their spots in service. New registrations continued while funded service delivery stalled.", "type": "crisis" }, { "year": 2021, "title": "Core Clinical Services Launch", "description": "New Core Clinical Services model launched. Funding range of $6,600 to $65,000 per year. Waitlist for the new service grew immediately as eligibility was extended.", "type": "program-change" }, { "year": 2023, "title": "FAO Spending Plan Review", "description": "Financial Accountability Office reviewed MCCSS spending plan. Reported 70,176 registered with OAP and only 19,966 receiving core services. Funding gap documented.", "type": "report" }, { "year": 2023, "title": "Waitlist Exceeds 50,000", "description": "Auditor General of Ontario noted OAP program wait times. Waitlist officially confirmed to have surpassed 50,000 children waiting without funded services.", "type": "crisis" }, { "year": 2026, "month": 3, "title": "CBC FOI Investigation Published", "description": "CBC News published investigation based on 18 months of OAP bi-weekly progress reports obtained via Freedom of Information. Revealed 88,175 children registered with only 20,666 funded.", "type": "report" } ], "provincialContext": [ { "province": "Ontario", "populationContext": "Population ~14.8M. ~1 in 50 children with autism diagnosis.", "waitlistStatus": "89,799 registered; 69,166 waiting without funding (Mar 2026)", "fundingModel": "OAP Core Clinical Services: $6,600–$65,000/year per child", "source": "MCCSS OAP bi-weekly progress report, FOI via OAC (March 4, 2026; CSS2026-0749)", "sourceUrl": "https://www.endthewaitontario.com/data-hub", "caveat": "Verified primary source. Excludes children awaiting diagnosis." }, { "province": "British Columbia", "populationContext": "Population ~5.4M.", "waitlistStatus": "BC Ministry of Children and Family Development does not publish a unified public waitlist count for autism services.", "fundingModel": "Autism Funding: 6,000 dollars a year under age 6; 22,000 dollars a year ages 6-18 (as of 2023; confirm current amounts with the BC ministry)", "source": "BC Ministry of Children and Family Development", "sourceUrl": "https://gov.bc.ca/autismfunding", "caveat": "BC autism funding model differs significantly from Ontario. Comparable waitlist data not publicly available." }, { "province": "Alberta", "populationContext": "Population ~4.6M.", "waitlistStatus": "Alberta does not operate a province-wide autism waitlist equivalent to Ontario's OAP. Services delivered through FSCD program.", "fundingModel": "Family Support for Children with Disabilities (FSCD): needs-based individualized funding", "source": "Alberta Government, Family Support for Children with Disabilities", "sourceUrl": "https://www.alberta.ca/fscd", "caveat": "Different program structure makes direct comparison with Ontario OAP inappropriate. Included for policy context only." }, { "province": "Quebec", "populationContext": "Population ~8.8M.", "waitlistStatus": "CLSC and CIUSSS waitlists for autism assessment and services reported in some regions but no unified provincial count is published.", "fundingModel": "Services delivered through regional health authorities. No unified direct-funding model comparable to OAP.", "source": "Autism Society of Greater Montreal; regional CIUSSS reports", "sourceUrl": "https://www.autisme.qc.ca/", "caveat": "Quebec autism services are structurally different. No directly comparable provincial waitlist figure is publicly available." } ] }