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Ontario education · Evidence review
On August 17, 2026, The Trillium reported on a draft education advertising script dated July 10, 2026. This article checks the reported talking points against contracts, independent oversight records and Ontario’s current education data.
Draft date
July 10, 2026
Latest AG ad record
$111.9M
Sources
44
Direct answer
Ford government preparing education ads taking aim at teacher unions as contract talks grind to a halt: leaked script · Verified 2026-08-17
In brief
01 · The document
Before arguing with a draft, separate the existence of the document from the truth of the claims inside it.
Reported draft
July 10, 2026
date on leaked draft
Teacher pay
Ontario teachers are already the highest paid in Canada.
Sick leave
Teachers average 14 sick days and can take them without supplying a medical note.
Campaign framing
Student Achievement First.
02 · Claim versus record
Each comparison answers the same factual question. Where the available evidence cannot answer it, we say that instead of reaching for a more dramatic number.
Reported claim
Ontario teachers are already the highest paid in Canada.
Reported in the leaked draft script.
The record
The leaked draft presents this as a government talking point. This article does not use unrelated per-student funding data as a rebuttal. A valid answer would require a like-for-like, current interprovincial compensation comparison, which is not established by the sources used for this article.
Comparison rule: a system-funding statistic is context, not proof about a teacher-pay claim. We do not substitute one question for the other.
Reported claim
Teachers average 14 sick days and can take them without supplying a medical note.
Reported in the leaked draft script.
The record
ETFO describes 11 sick days at 100% salary and 120 short-term leave and disability plan days at 90%. Medical documentation is not accurately reduced to “no note”: ETFO says collective agreements set conditions for when documentation may be requested, and a board may also request it where there is a reasonable basis to challenge an absence or return.
Reported claim
Student Achievement First.
Reported in the leaked draft script.
The record
The slogan is a government framing, not a measurable proposition by itself. The article therefore places it beside independently sourced records on special education, per-student funding and the OAP waitlist as context, without treating those records as proof of government intent.
03 · Follow the money
The cleanest comparison is the government’s own advertising record, measured by the office that reviews it.
The Office of the Auditor General of Ontario reports that total government advertising spending reached $111.9M in 2024-25, up from $103.5M the year before. It calls the latest amount the highest it has recorded.
That does not mean the Auditor General labelled the entire amount partisan. The Office flagged nine campaigns totalling $43M, about 38% of total spending, as “Other Matters”: campaigns it says would not have passed the original review standard.
The same report explains why that distinction matters. Changes made in 2015 narrowed the statutory definition of “partisan” and removed the Auditor General’s discretion in determining an ad’s status. Under the amended rules, the Office says it cannot use factual accuracy, context or tone as additional tests of whether an advertisement is partisan.
The Auditor General flagged nine campaigns totalling $43M, about 38% of the $111.9M total. The remaining spending is not labelled partisan by this chart.
| Fiscal year | Total advertising spend | Other Matters flagged by Auditor General |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | $33.7 million | Not shown for this article |
| 2023-24 | $103.5 million | Not shown for this article |
| 2024-25 | $111.9 million | $43 million (38%) |
04 · The school funding record
This chart does not answer whether teachers are the highest paid in Canada. It answers a different, important question about the system around them.
The Financial Accountability Office reports that real provincial operating funding per student was $14,504 in 2024-25, the lowest level in its ten-year historical series. The FAO then projects funding through 2027-28; the projected portion is shown separately because a forecast is not an observed outcome.
| School year | Real funding per student | Actual or projected |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | $14,862 | Actual |
| 2016-17 | $15,132 | Actual |
| 2017-18 | $14,776 | Actual |
| 2018-19 | $14,923 | Actual |
| 2019-20 | $14,539 | Actual |
| 2020-21 | $15,296 | Actual |
| 2021-22 | $14,640 | Actual |
| 2022-23 | $14,620 | Actual |
| 2023-24 | $14,866 | Actual |
| 2024-25 | $14,504 | Actual |
| 2025-26 | $14,521 | Projected |
| 2026-27 | $14,685 | Projected |
| 2027-28 | $14,111 | Projected |
Financial Accountability Office of Ontario · 2025-10-23
Read this as system context, not as a rebuttal to the draft’s teacher-compensation talking point. Different propositions require different evidence.
05 · Student Achievement First
Three current records that belong in any serious discussion about student achievement. None of them proves what the government intended by the ad campaign.
71,263
91,974 children and youth are registered. 20,711 have an active core funding agreement, leaving 71,263 waiting for funding as of May 13, 2026.
This OAP figure is a disability-services record, not a school-board funding measure. It is included because the ad’s student-first framing invites the broader question of which disabled children are receiving public supports.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · May 13, 2026
$397.9M
46 of 72 Ontario boards collectively spent more on special education than the Ministry provided in 2023/24.
The site-wide rounded display is $398M; the audit’s underlying total is $397.9M.
Auditor General of Ontario · May 2026
90%+
At each of the three sampled boards, the Auditor General found at least nine in ten annual IEP learning goals had no measurable criteria.
49-72% is the separate range for unfilled EA absences. The two findings are not interchangeable.
Auditor General of Ontario · Finding 4.3.1 · 2026-05-12
06 · Chronology
Timing matters. Timing alone does not prove a plan, a motive or a causal chain.
AEFO, ETFO, OECTA, OSBCU and OSSTF publicly ask the government to start bargaining early, citing the risk of a September disruption. The unions say the call was not taken up.
AEFO, ETFO, OECTA, OSBCU and OSSTF/FEESO each serve notice to bargain, together representing more than 255,000 teachers and education workers. The parties must meet within 15 days.
The leaked education advertising script reported by The Trillium is dated July 10 and labelled “Ministry of Education: Student Achievement First.”
After four days at the central table, OSBCU rejects a Ministry proposal to centralize historically local items and refers the scope question to the Ontario Labour Relations Board. OSBCU says the dispute could delay bargaining by several months.
OSBCU files its application asking the Ontario Labour Relations Board to determine which issues belong within the scope of central bargaining, and writes to the Crown and the employers’ bargaining agency asking that bargaining proceed meanwhile on the items both sides already agree are central. OSBCU says it cannot say how long the Board will take.
The Trillium publishes its report on the leaked draft and the Education Minister’s response. Publication of the report establishes the reporting date, not whether every proposed spot was filmed or aired unchanged.
Sequence shows timing. It does not, by itself, establish motive or causation.
Sources: Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario · 2026-06-03 · The Trillium · 2026-08-17
Current bargaining status: September 28, 2026 review: all five central unions have now scheduled member strike votes — ETFO (roughly 84,000 members) electronically November 9–18, 2026, CUPE-OSBCU (57,000 members) electronically November 4–18, 2026, OSSTF/FEESO electronically November 6–16, 2026, OECTA November 12–13, 2026, and AEFO electronically November 16–17, 2026. These are separate scheduled votes, not strike dates or completed results. OSBCU reports OLRB scope-hearing dates of October 6, 21, 27 and 28 and expects a decision in early November; those hearings have not yet begun. The reviewed material does not establish a strike start date or that statutory preconditions for job action have been met. Check the source date, your bargaining unit and board notices; this tracker is not a census of every central or local table.
07 · Government position
Responsible communication means giving the government’s explanation its own space, not burying it inside a rebuttal.
According to The Trillium, Education Minister Paul Calandra confirmed the government intended to communicate directly with parents and pointed to union advertising as part of the reason for doing so. The reported draft frames the campaign around student achievement, teacher attendance and curriculum priorities.
That is the government’s stated rationale. It does not establish that every numerical talking point in a proposed advertisement is accurate, just as disagreement with the campaign does not establish an undisclosed motive.
The bargaining dispute is also contested. The public record contains competing accounts about why talks slowed and which issues belong at the central table. The Ontario Labour Relations Board process is the appropriate place to resolve the scope question; this article does not convert either side’s account into an independent finding.
08 · Evidence synthesis
A strong case gets stronger when the unknowns are visible.
Reported claim
The Trillium reported the draft and its talking points on August 17. Those talking points remain claims unless supported independently.
Verified record
The Auditor General, FAO, collective-agreement guidance and current program data establish the spending, funding and special-education facts presented above.
What remains unknown
We do not know from the cited record whether every proposed spot was filmed, whether a final campaign aired word-for-word, its final total cost, or the government’s private strategy or motive.
09 · Method
The rule is simple: classify the evidence before drawing the conclusion.
What did the 2026 Ontario Auditor General find about special education?
Tabled May 12, 2026, the Auditor General's Special Report on Special Education Needs found 65% of placement decisions had no written rationale, 90%+ of IEP goals lacked measurable criteria, education assistants absent on 18% of school days (49-72% unfilled), and only 21% of inclusive-classroom teachers could meet most students' needs. It made 15 recommendations; the Ministry disagreed with 2.
Source: Auditor General of Ontario, Special Report on Special Education Needs (May 12, 2026) · Open source record
What did the Auditor General find about Ontario autism services?
The Ontario Auditor General (2013, follow-up 2015) found: inadequate wait time tracking, insufficient oversight of therapy providers, and families waiting years without updates. The FAO (2020, 2024) found the program chronically underfunded. Most accountability recommendations remain unimplemented.
Source: Ontario Auditor General 2013; FAO Reports 2020, 2024 · Open source record
The reported teacher-pay line is not treated as proven or disproven here. A valid comparison would require current, like-for-like interprovincial compensation evidence.
Families navigating autism services in Ontario face a documented multi-year wait. Here is the Ontario data — and a two-minute way to push back, when you are ready.
| Date | Record | Publisher | Source type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17Research source | Ford government preparing education ads taking aim at teacher unions as contract talks grind to a halt: leaked script | The Trillium | Research source |
| 2025-12-02Government source | Review of Government Advertising | Office of the Auditor General of Ontario | Government source |
| 2017-09-01Research source | Your Sick Leave Questions Explained | Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario | Research source |
| Government source | Government Advertising Act, 2004, S.O. 2004, c. 20 | Government of Ontario | Government source |
| 2025-10-23Government source | Ministry of Education: 2025 Spending Plan Review | Financial Accountability Office of Ontario | Government source |
| 2023-04-18Research source | Inflation-adjusted school funding is down $1,200 per student since the Ford government came to power | Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives | Research source |
| 2026-06-03Research source | Ontario's Education Unions Serve Notice to Bargain | Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario | Research source |
| 2026-06-03Research source | Ontario's Education Unions Serve Notice to Bargain | Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation | Research source |
| 2026-03-02Research source | Ontario's Education Unions Call for an Early Start to Bargaining to Best Support Students and Families | Ontario School Board Council of Unions | Research source |
| 2026-07-22Research source | OSBCU 2026 Central Bargaining Update #5 | Ontario School Board Council of Unions | Research source |
| 2026-06-03Research source | Ontario education unions serve notice to bargain as possible September strike looms | The Globe and Mail | Research source |
| 2026-06-03Research source | Education unions serve notice to bargain, begin countdown for contract talks with province | CBC News | Research source |
| 2014Government source | School Boards Collective Bargaining Act, 2014, S.O. 2014, c. 5 | CanLII | Government source |
| Government source | Equal access to education for students with disabilities during strikes (fact sheet) | Ontario Human Rights Commission | Government source |
| 2026-08-06Research source | OSBCU 2026 Central Bargaining Update #6 | Ontario School Board Council of Unions | Research source |
| 2026-08-06Research source | Letter to the Crown and CEA re: Request to commence central bargaining on agreed central scope items | Ontario School Board Council of Unions | Research source |
| 2026-03-02Research source | Ontario's Education Unions Call for an Early Start to Bargaining to Best Support Students and Families | Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation | Research source |
| Government source | Human Rights Code, R.S.O. 1990, c. H.19 | Government of Ontario | Government source |
| Research source | Négociations 2026 - Personnel enseignant régulier et suppléant | Association des enseignantes et des enseignants franco-ontariens | Research source |
| 2026-08-18Research source | ‘We are going to fight’: Ontario teachers’ unions mull strike action as bargaining talks stall | CP24 | Research source |
| 2026-08-19Research source | Ontario teachers without new contract as talks between province and unions stall | CHCH News | Research source |
| 2026-08-31Research source | What stalled negotiations between Ontario and teachers' unions mean for back to school | CBC News | Research source |
| 2026-08-24Research source | Fight Ford: province-wide protests | Ontario School Board Council of Unions | Research source |
| 2026-09-01Research source | Joint statement: Calandra’s bargaining bluster falls flat against dire challenges in publicly funded education | Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (joint release of the five central unions) | Research source |
| 2026Government source | Putting Student Achievement First Act, 2026, S.O. 2026, c. 4 | Legislative Assembly of Ontario | Government source |
| 2026-04-14Government source | Hansard Transcript, April 14, 2026 | Legislative Assembly of Ontario | Government source |
| 2026-09-02Research source | OSBCU 2026 Central Bargaining Update #7 – September 2, 2026 | Ontario School Board Council of Unions | Research source |
| 2026-09-02Research source | Ontario teachers set to return to classroom without new contracts | CP24 | Research source |
| 2026-08-20Research source | Ontario teachers will be without a contract as school returns but education minister very optimistic | AM800/CKLW | Research source |
| 2026-04-30Government source | Standing Committee on Social Policy Transcript, April 30, 2026 | Legislative Assembly of Ontario | Government source |
| 2026-09-14Research source | Ontario English Catholic teachers schedule strike vote amid stalled bargaining | The Canadian Press / CityNews | Research source |
| 2026-09-11Research source | OSBCU 2026 Central Bargaining Update #8 — September 10, 2026 | CUPE-OSBCU | Research source |
| 2026-09-03Research source | Bargaining Bulletin #4: Together for Publicly Funded Education | OPSEU/SEFPO | Research source |
| Government source | O. Reg. 50/26 — The 2026 Round of Collective Bargaining | Ontario e-Laws | Government source |
| Government source | Collective bargaining | Ontario Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development | Government source |
| 2026-09-20Research source | OSBCU 2026 Central Bargaining Update #9 — September 20, 2026 | Ontario School Board Council of Unions (CUPE-OSBCU) | Research source |
| 2026-09-18Research source | Elementary teachers union says it will hold strike vote in November as contract talks stall | CP24 | Research source |
| 2026-09-21Research source | Ontario education unions promise ‘proportional response,’ schedule 3rd strike vote | Global News | Research source |
| 2026-09-23Research source | Un vote de grève cet automne pour les enseignants franco-ontariens | Le Droit | Research source |
| 2026-09-23Research source | Vote de grève des enseignants de l’AEFO | Radio-Canada | Research source |
| 2026-09-25Research source | OSSTF announces strike vote for November | CP24 | Research source |
| 2026-09-26Research source | Teachers put issues on table in labour talks with government | Chronicle Journal (Thunder Bay; Canadian Press wire) | Research source |
| 2026-05-12Government source | Special Report on Special Education Needs | Office of the Auditor General of Ontario | Government source |
| 2026-05-13Government source | Ontario Autism Program figures as of May 13, 2026 | MCCSS figures obtained under Freedom of Information by the Ontario Autism Coalition | Government source |
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