Ontario education · Evidence review
01 · The document
Before arguing with a draft, separate the existence of the document from the truth of the claims inside it.
Reported draft
July 10, 2026
date on leaked draft
Teacher pay
Ontario teachers are already paid more than teachers elsewhere in Canada.
Sick leave
Teachers average 14 sick days and can take them without supplying a medical note.
Campaign framing
Student Achievement First.
02 · Claim versus record
Each comparison answers the same factual question. Where the available evidence cannot answer it, we say that instead of reaching for a more dramatic number.
Reported claim
Ontario teachers are already paid more than teachers elsewhere in Canada.
Reported in the leaked draft script.
The record
The leaked draft presents this as a government talking point. This article does not use unrelated per-student funding data as a rebuttal. A valid answer would require a like-for-like, current interprovincial compensation comparison, which is not established by the sources used for this article.
Comparison rule: a system-funding statistic is context, not proof about a teacher-pay claim. We do not substitute one question for the other.
Reported claim
Teachers average 14 sick days and can take them without supplying a medical note.
Reported in the leaked draft script.
The record
ETFO describes 11 sick days at 100% salary and 120 short-term leave and disability plan days at 90%. Medical documentation is not accurately reduced to “no note”: ETFO says collective agreements set conditions for when documentation may be requested, and a board may also request it where there is a reasonable basis to challenge an absence or return.
Reported claim
Student Achievement First.
Reported in the leaked draft script.
The record
The slogan is a government framing, not a measurable proposition by itself. The article therefore places it beside independently sourced records on special education, per-student funding and the OAP waitlist as context, without treating those records as proof of government intent.
03 · Follow the money
The cleanest comparison is the government’s own advertising record, measured by the office that reviews it.
The Office of the Auditor General of Ontario reports that total government advertising spending reached $111.9M in 2024-25, up from $103.5M the year before. It calls the latest amount the highest it has recorded.
That does not mean the Auditor General labelled the entire amount partisan. The Office flagged nine campaigns totalling $43M, about 38% of total spending, as “Other Matters”: campaigns it says would not have passed the original review standard.
The same report explains why that distinction matters. Changes made in 2015 narrowed the statutory definition of “partisan” and removed the Auditor General’s discretion in determining an ad’s status. Under the amended rules, the Office says it cannot use factual accuracy, context or tone as additional tests of whether an advertisement is partisan.
The Auditor General flagged nine campaigns totalling $43M, about 38% of the $111.9M total. The remaining spending is not labelled partisan by this chart.
| Fiscal year | Total advertising spend | Other Matters flagged by Auditor General |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | $33.7 million | Not shown for this article |
| 2023-24 | $103.5 million | Not shown for this article |
| 2024-25 | $111.9 million | $43 million (38%) |
04 · The school funding record
This chart does not answer whether teachers are the highest paid in Canada. It answers a different, important question about the system around them.
The Financial Accountability Office reports that real provincial operating funding per student was $14,504 in 2024-25, the lowest level in its ten-year historical series. The FAO then projects funding through 2027-28; the projected portion is shown separately because a forecast is not an observed outcome.
| School year | Real funding per student | Actual or projected |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | $14,862 | Actual |
| 2016-17 | $15,132 | Actual |
| 2017-18 | $14,776 | Actual |
| 2018-19 | $14,923 | Actual |
| 2019-20 | $14,539 | Actual |
| 2020-21 | $15,296 | Actual |
| 2021-22 | $14,640 | Actual |
| 2022-23 | $14,620 | Actual |
| 2023-24 | $14,866 | Actual |
| 2024-25 | $14,504 | Actual |
| 2025-26 | $14,521 | Projected |
| 2026-27 | $14,685 | Projected |
| 2027-28 | $14,111 | Projected |
Read this as system context, not as a rebuttal to the draft’s teacher-compensation talking point. Different propositions require different evidence.
05 · Student Achievement First
Three current records that belong in any serious discussion about student achievement. None of them proves what the government intended by the ad campaign.
71,263
91,974 children and youth are registered. 20,711 have an active core funding agreement, leaving 71,263 waiting for funding as of May 13, 2026.
This OAP figure is a disability-services record, not a school-board funding measure. It is included because the ad’s student-first framing invites the broader question of which disabled children are receiving public supports.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026
$397.9M
46 of 72 Ontario boards collectively spent more on special education than the Ministry provided in 2023/24.
The site-wide rounded display is $398M; the audit’s underlying total is $397.9M.
Auditor General of Ontario · May 2026
90%+
At each of the three sampled boards, the Auditor General found at least nine in ten annual IEP learning goals had no measurable criteria.
49–72% is the separate range for unfilled EA absences. The two findings are not interchangeable.
Auditor General of Ontario · Finding 4.3.1
06 · Chronology
Timing matters. Timing alone does not prove a plan, a motive or a causal chain.
AEFO, ETFO, OECTA, OSBCU and OSSTF publicly ask the government to start bargaining early, citing the risk of a September disruption. The unions say the call was not taken up.
AEFO, ETFO, OECTA, OSBCU and OSSTF/FEESO each serve notice to bargain, together representing more than 255,000 teachers and education workers. The parties must meet within 15 days.
The leaked education advertising script reported by The Trillium is dated July 10 and labelled “Ministry of Education: Student Achievement First.”
After four days at the central table, OSBCU rejects a Ministry proposal to centralize historically local items and refers the scope question to the Ontario Labour Relations Board. OSBCU says the dispute could delay bargaining by several months.
OSBCU files its application asking the Ontario Labour Relations Board to determine which issues belong within the scope of central bargaining, and writes to the Crown and the employers’ bargaining agency asking that bargaining proceed meanwhile on the items both sides already agree are central. OSBCU says it cannot say how long the Board will take.
The Trillium publishes its report on the leaked draft and the Education Minister’s response. Publication of the report establishes the reporting date, not whether every proposed spot was filmed or aired unchanged.
Sequence shows timing. It does not, by itself, establish motive or causation.
Current bargaining status: No strike vote has been held and no strike has been scheduled. Unions have said they are preparing for possible strike votes, and CUPE-OSBCU locals have been asked to sign pledges to strike if necessary. A pledge is not a strike vote.
07 · Government position
Responsible communication means giving the government’s explanation its own space, not burying it inside a rebuttal.
According to The Trillium, Education Minister Paul Calandra confirmed the government intended to communicate directly with parents and pointed to union advertising as part of the reason for doing so. The reported draft frames the campaign around student achievement, teacher attendance and curriculum priorities.
That is the government’s stated rationale. It does not establish that every numerical talking point in a proposed advertisement is accurate, just as disagreement with the campaign does not establish an undisclosed motive.
The bargaining dispute is also contested. The public record contains competing accounts about why talks slowed and which issues belong at the central table. The Ontario Labour Relations Board process is the appropriate place to resolve the scope question; this article does not convert either side’s account into an independent finding.
08 · Evidence synthesis
A strong case gets stronger when the unknowns are visible.
Reported claim
The Trillium reported the draft and its talking points on August 17. Those talking points remain claims unless supported independently.
Verified record
The Auditor General, FAO, collective-agreement guidance and current program data establish the spending, funding and special-education facts presented above.
What remains unknown
We do not know from the cited record whether every proposed spot was filmed, whether a final campaign aired word-for-word, its final total cost, or the government’s private strategy or motive.
09 · Method
The rule is simple: classify the evidence before drawing the conclusion.
We treat a leaked-script line as a reported claim, a minister’s explanation as a government position, an Auditor General or FAO finding as a verified record, and any conclusion we draw from those facts as analysis.
We also apply a comparison-integrity rule: the evidence beside a claim must answer the same factual proposition. That is why the teacher-pay line is not “debunked” with a per-student funding number. The funding series is important, but it answers a different question.
If the final advertising campaign, bargaining status or source record changes, this article should change with it. The evidence module for this page was last reviewed 2026-08-17.
Continue with the 2026 bargaining briefing, the live bargaining tracker, or the receipts library.
SOURCE
The Trillium • 2026-08-17
Reporting on a leaked draft dated July 10, 2026 and labelled “Ministry of Education: Student Achievement First.” The draft uses actors playing parents to deliver government talking points about teacher pay, sick leave and possible job action. The draft itself is treated as a reported document, not proof that every talking point is true or that a final advertisement aired unchanged.
SOURCE
Office of the Auditor General of Ontario • 2025-12-02
Primary source for the 10-year spending series, the $111.9M 2024/25 record, the nine “Other Matters” campaigns totalling $43M (about 38% of total spending), and the explanation that 2015 amendments narrowed the definition of partisan advertising and removed the Auditor General’s discretion.
SOURCE
Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario • 2017-09-01
ETFO explains the plan as 11 sick days at 100% salary plus 120 short-term leave and disability plan days at 90%. It also states that many collective agreements set conditions for when medical documentation may be requested and that a board may request documentation where it has a reasonable basis to challenge an absence or return.
SOURCE
Government of Ontario
Current statute governing reviewable Ontario government advertising. The Auditor General’s 2025 review explains the effect of the 2015 amendments on the review standard.
SOURCE
Financial Accountability Office of Ontario • 2025-10-23
Source for the full real per-student provincial operating funding series in 2024-25 constant dollars, 2015-16 through 2027-28, and for the finding that 2024-25 was the lowest level over the last 10 years. The FAO is an independent, non-partisan officer of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
SOURCE
Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives • 2023-04-18
Ricardo Tranjan. IMPORTANT: published April 2023, so its 2023-24 figures were a projection made at the time, not an outcome. Retained for the board-level TDSB estimate, which the FAO series does not provide. For province-wide actuals the FAO series supersedes it.
SOURCE
Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario • 2026-06-03
Joint release of the five central unions. Source for the June 3 notice date, the 255,000+ combined figure, the joint list of bargaining priorities, and the five presidents’ names.
SOURCE
Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation • 2026-06-03
OSSTF mirror of the joint June 3 release.
SOURCE
Ontario School Board Council of Unions • 2026-03-02
The March 2 joint call for early bargaining, which the unions say the government did not take up.
SOURCE
Ontario School Board Council of Unions • 2026-07-22
Source for days at the central table, the Ontario Labour Relations Board scope dispute over centralizing historically local items, and OSBCU’s own statement that the dispute could delay bargaining by several months.
SOURCE
The Globe and Mail • 2026-06-03
Source for the 15-day meet requirement, union leaders’ statements that they are preparing for strike votes, and the $6.4-billion union underfunding claim.
SOURCE
CBC News • 2026-06-03
Source for the bargaining countdown following notice to bargain.
SOURCE
CanLII • 2014
The statute governing two-tier central and local bargaining in Ontario school boards, including the Crown’s role and the conciliation route into a lawful strike position.
SOURCE
Ontario Human Rights Commission
The governing human-rights guidance for work stoppages involving educational assistants. Sets out the shared duty on government, school boards and unions to put contingency plans in place, and confirms that interference with a collective agreement does not constitute undue hardship.
SOURCE
Ontario School Board Council of Unions • 2026-08-06
Source for the August 6 filing of the formal OLRB scope application ("today we filed an application with the Ontario Labour Relations Board (OLRB) asking it to determine which issues belong within the scope of central bargaining"), for OSBCU’s statement that it cannot say how long the OLRB process will take, and for OSBCU’s account of the employer’s condition for returning to the table. Also the source for locals being asked to sign strike pledges — a pledge is not a strike vote, and no strike vote is reported.
SOURCE
Ontario School Board Council of Unions • 2026-08-06
OSBCU president Joe Tigani’s written request that bargaining proceed on items both sides already agree are central, while the OLRB decides the disputed items. Indexed on the OSBCU news listing.
SOURCE
Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation • 2026-03-02
OSSTF mirror of the March 2 joint call, and the source for the statement that the Minister of Education has authority to allow bargaining to begin up to 180 days before the agreements expire.
SOURCE
Government of Ontario
Section 1 (equal treatment in services, including education) and section 17 (duty to accommodate).
SOURCE
Office of the Auditor General of Ontario • 2026-05-12
Primary source for the special-education spending, IEP measurability and educational-assistant findings used in this article.
SOURCE
MCCSS figures obtained under Freedom of Information by the Ontario Autism Coalition • 2026-05-13
MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information
What did the Auditor General find about Ontario autism services?
The Ontario Auditor General (2013, follow-up 2015) found: inadequate wait time tracking, insufficient oversight of therapy providers, and families waiting years without updates. The FAO (2020, 2024) found the program chronically underfunded. Most accountability recommendations remain unimplemented.
Source: Ontario Auditor General 2013; FAO Reports 2020, 2024 · Verify Link
What did the 2026 Ontario Auditor General find about special education?
Tabled May 12, 2026, the Auditor General's Special Report on Special Education Needs found 65% of placement decisions had no written rationale, 90%+ of IEP goals lacked measurable criteria, education assistants absent on 18% of school days (49–72% unfilled), and only 21% of inclusive-classroom teachers could meet most students' needs. It made 15 recommendations; the Ministry disagreed with 2.
Source: Auditor General of Ontario, Special Report on Special Education Needs (May 12, 2026) · Verify Link
Written by Spencer Carroll
Founder & Autism Advocate
Evidence on this page
Key claims are paired with their source, evidence tier, and verification date so readers can inspect the public record directly.
Under the Ontario Education Act, every student with special needs is entitled to an Individual Education Plan (IEP) and access to an Identification, Placement and Review Committee (IPRC)
91,974
children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
1 in 50
According to the 2019 Canadian Health Survey on Children and Youth, about 1 in 50 children and youth aged 1 to 17 in Canada had an autism diagnosis
22.5%
Only 20,711 children have active funding agreements (22.5%), less than one in four
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism. Timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement