91,974
children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
Policy simulator
What Could Be: Ontario Autism Policy Scenarios
What does the policy simulator compare?
5+ years for families registered in August 2021 (community-reported, Ontario Autism Coalition, July 2026)
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · FAO 2024 OAP spending review · Verified 2026-08-10
In brief
In short
- 5+ years for families registered in August 2021 (community-reported, Ontario Autism Coalition, July 2026)
- FAO Published Estimate (ETWO scenario): FAO estimated ~40,700 children at ~$29,900/child therapy plus admin = ~$33,170 total. Published total: ~$1.35B.
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- FAO Methodology, Current Population (ETWO scenario): FAO per-child cost ($33,170) × current registration (91,974). Uses 2020 costs without inflation — conservative.
- Inflation-Adjusted to 2025 (ETWO scenario): Per-child cost adjusted for cumulative Ontario CPI 2020–2025 (+20.6%). FAO 2024 $34,000 avg core allocation consistent with ~$40,000 total.
Verified: 2026-08-10Scope: Ontario, Canada
Explore the policy scenarios
Preparing interactive data story
Waitlist context: MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026, May 2026. Verified 2026-08-10. Scenario methods and sources are documented in the linked scenario methods page.
Compare the modeled scenarios
Annual need and the model basis for each ETWO scenario.
| Scenario | Annual need | Model basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAO Published Estimate (ETWO scenario) | $1.35B | FAO estimated ~40,700 children at ~$29,900/child therapy plus admin = ~$33,170 total. Published total: ~$1.35B. | ETWO scenario model; see scenario methods and sources |
| FAO Methodology, Current Population (ETWO scenario) | $3.05B | FAO per-child cost ($33,170) × current registration (91,974). Uses 2020 costs without inflation — conservative. | ETWO scenario model; see scenario methods and sources |
| Inflation-Adjusted to 2025 (ETWO scenario) | $3.68B | Per-child cost adjusted for cumulative Ontario CPI 2020–2025 (+20.6%). FAO 2024 $34,000 avg core allocation consistent with ~$40,000 total. | ETWO scenario model; see scenario methods and sources |
Waitlist context source: MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026, May 2026. Scenario methods and sources: ETWO scenario methods page.
Help End the Wait
- MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information. Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services (Ontario), obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition (May 13, 2026)
- Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services: Spending Plan Review (2024). Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (2024)
Related guides
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Sources on this page
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Facts3
Sources2
22.5%
Only 20,711 children have active funding agreements (22.5%), less than one in four
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism. Timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement
Last system verification: 2026-08-10. Next scheduled update: 2026-11-05.
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