What Would It Cost Each Year to Serve Every Registered Child?

Direct answer

FAO 2020 · FAO 2024 · 2026 Ontario Budget · MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · Verified 2026-11-03

The Published $385M Gap

The widely cited shortfall, and why it's already obsolete.

In July 2020, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario published Autism Services, A Financial Review. FAO The FAO estimated that clearing the waitlist would cost approximately $1.35 billion per year. This was based on an estimated 40,700 children with ASD in Ontario, at an average of $29,900 per child for needs-based services. Dividing the FAO's $1.35 billion total by those children gives about $33,170 per child; that division is ETWO's, not an FAO figure.

This number is stale

The FAO calculated $1.35B for 40,700 children (2020 estimate). As of May 2026, 91,974 children are registered, a 126% increase. FOI The FAO has not published an updated autism-specific cost estimate. The commonly cited $385M gap significantly underestimates the true shortfall.

Actual Spending per Registered Child Fell Between 2023-24 and 2025-26

Actual spending per registered child went from $9,849 in 2023-24 to $9,071 in 2025-26. Registration grew faster than spending.

Actual OAP spending of $691.2M in 2023-24, divided across the 70,176 children registered on February 29, 2024, is $9,849 per registered child. Actual spending of $814.6M in 2025-26, divided across the 89,799 registered on March 4, 2026, is $9,071 per registered child. The 2026-27 budget of $965M works out to $10,492 per registered child; that is a budget, not spending. BUDGET The FAO's 2020 review used an average of $29,900 per child for needs-based services; dividing its $1.35 billion total by its child count gives about $33,170 per child (ETWO's division). FAO In an illustrative scenario based on that per-child figure applied to current registration, approximately 32 cents of each budget dollar matches the per-child level (35¢ on the FAO's own $29,900 basis) .

For every dollar a child needs, Ontario spends 32¢

ETWO's per-child figure from the FAO 2020 total is ~$33,170 per child per year (the FAO's own needs-based average was $29,900). The 2026-27 budget yields $10,492 per child, a gap of $22,678 per child on that basis.

ETWO's per-child figure from the FAO 2020 total is ~$33,170 per child per year. The 2026-27 budget yields $10,492 per child. Sources: FAO 2020 and 2026 Budget p.136. Verified 2026-11-03.

Methodological note

Per-child figures divide total OAP budget by total registered population. They are illustrative of average program capacity, actual individual allocations range from $6,600 to $65,000 based on assessed need. FAO Not all registered children may be actively seeking services; the government does not publish deregistration data.

FAO 2020 estimate scaled to current data

Three Calculations, One Conclusion

We scaled the FAO's 2020 estimate to current data. Scenarios 2 and 3 are ETWO calculations, not FAO figures, and they share one starting point: the FAO's 2020 per-child cost. Each uses a different assumption. All three show the same thing: the gap is far larger than $385M.

Cross-validation: FAO 2024 marginal cost

The FAO's 2024 data provides an independent check. At the $600M spending-plan level, the program fully funds 10,142 children. At the $723M 2024 budget, it funds 12,629. FAO That's an incremental cost of ~$49,457 per marginal child (including proportional overhead). At that rate, serving all 91,974 would cost ~$4.5B, even higher than the inflation-adjusted scenario. This cross-validation suggests the estimates may be conservative, the marginal cost approach yields a higher figure.

Government's stated position

In response to the FAO's June 2024 MCCSS Spending Plan Review, the Ministry stated that “the FAO's opinions are not representative of actual government spending” and noted it had “met our target of 20,000 children enrolled in Core Clinical Services.” The ministry further stated that it does not “allocate core clinical services funding based on average amounts” and therefore could not confirm the FAO's per-child calculations. PUB

Our response: The government's position that it doesn't allocate based on averages is technically correct, individual allocations range from $6,600 to $65,000. But averages are the standard tool for estimating total program cost across a population. The FAO is the Legislature's independent fiscal analyst. Its methodology is public. The government has not published an alternative cost estimate for serving all registered children.

Where the Money Goes, And Doesn't

Less than half of OAP spending is recorded under core clinical services.

Estimated expenditures based on regional-office forecasts, subject to validation. These category rows are not audited actuals or current-year budgets.

The source rows sum to $1 more than the printed total. Both are preserved; percentages use the printed total and may not add up to the whole after rounding.

Source: MCCSS spending table, released under FOI and published by The Trillium · As of March 31, 2024; published July 4, 2024. Inspect the ministry table and its footnotes.

Money Alone Won't Clear the Waitlist

The FAO warned in both 2020 and 2024 that even with full funding, Ontario may not have enough qualified therapists.

Six years after the FAO flagged the workforce constraint, the government has not published a workforce capacity assessment for autism services. The 2026 budget allocates funding to “strengthen sector capacity” BUDGET but sets no workforce targets, training quotas, or capacity benchmarks.

What a credible clearance plan requires

A phased funding increase paired with a workforce development strategy: training seats, supervision capacity, regional distribution targets, and annual public reporting on both funding and service delivery metrics. The government's own primary care plan does this, it names attachment targets (300,000 by July 2026), timelines, and ongoing progress reporting. BUDGET The autism program has none of these.

A Five-Year Path to Full Service

What annual investment would be required to reach all 91,974 registered children by 2030-31, using ETWO's scaling of the FAO 2020 estimate ($3.05B full-need estimate; about $2.75B on the FAO's own $29,900 per-child basis). The illustrative plan below ramps to $2.9B by 2030-31.

The annual increment

The illustrative plan raises the annual budget in four steps: $385M, $450M, $550M and $550M. The first step, $385M, equals the FAO 2020 need estimate ($1.35B) minus the 2026-27 budget ($965M); the later steps are ETWO's illustrative assumptions. In the context of a $13.8B deficit and $244.2 billion total provincial spending, the largest single-year step ($550M) is 0.23% of total spending.

The Accountability Double Standard

The same budget that increases autism funding restricts the tools families use to verify how that funding is spent. Two waitlists held to completely different standards.

What the budget actually says about autism

“This new investment will enable more children and youth to access core clinical services while further strengthening sector capacity across the province. It also builds on the government's ongoing work to modernize and enhance the Ontario Autism Program to better meet the needs of families.”

That is the complete OAP section from the budget (p.136). BUDGET No numbers. No targets. No accountability mechanism.

The FOI Lockdown

The same budget announces proposed changes to Ontario's Freedom of Information law, exempting the Premier's office, cabinet ministers, and parliamentary assistants from FOI requests.

The registration and funding counts on this site come from MCCSS reports released under FOI (MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026). The 91,974 figure. The funding breakdowns. The AccessOAP data. These amendments would make future requests harder, slower, and less complete, right as the government increases autism spending without accountability targets. IPC

Government's stated position

Minister Crawford stated the changes would bring Ontario “more closely in line with practices used in other jurisdictions across Canada.” The government noted Ontario is one of only two provinces that doesn't exclude ministerial records from FOI. Government decisions communicated to the public service, including formal direction from ministers, would continue to be subject to access rules. GOV

Full Calculation Transparency

Every step, assumption, and limitation, stated explicitly.

Important Limitations

1. Not all 91,974 registrations may represent active children. Some may have aged out, moved, or no longer need services. The government does not publish deregistration data.
2. The FAO's 2020 per-child cost reflects 2018-19 service levels. The needs-based model may have changed cost structure.
3. Workforce constraints mean the waitlist cannot be cleared instantly, a phased approach is necessary.
4. Per-child averages mask substantial variation ($6,600–$65,000). Total cost depends on needs distribution.
5. These calculations estimate the cost of serving all registered children, not clearing the waitlist, which also requires ongoing funding for new registrations.
6. Ontario CPI is used as a general inflation proxy. Health services inflation may differ from general CPI.

Questions Raised by the Data

These are questions for public debate, not accusations or conclusions.

Primary Source List

Corrections & Right of Reply

End The Wait Ontario is committed to factual accuracy. If any figure, attribution, legal citation, or characterization in this analysis is inaccurate, we will correct it promptly and publish a dated note of correction. Organizations and individuals referenced in this analysis are invited to contact us with corrections, clarifications, or responses, which we will publish in full or in relevant part. Contact: endthewaitontario.com/contact

No corrections have been issued as of March 26, 2026.

Legal disclaimer: This analysis presents advocacy arguments based on publicly available data and independent fiscal analysis. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or policy advice. No allegation of wrongdoing, fraud, impropriety, or breach of contract is made or implied against any individual, organization, or government entity. All claims of fact are attributed to specific, verifiable sources. This analysis uses no anonymous sources, leaked documents, or confidential information.

Independence: End The Wait Ontario is a parent-led advocacy group. We are not affiliated with the Ontario government, the Ontario Autism Coalition, Autism Ontario, or the FAO. Non-partisan: We advocate on policy outcomes and do not endorse any political party.

Frequently Asked Questions

Verified answers on the Ontario Autism Program funding gap, waitlist size, and budget math.

How much would it cost to clear the Ontario autism waitlist?

The FAO's 2020 estimate of $1.35B was based on 40,700 children. With 91,974 now registered, ETWO's scaling of that estimate to the current registration yields $3.05B–$3.68B annually, depending on inflation adjustment (the FAO's own $29,900-per-child service level gives about $2.75B). The 2026 budget provides $965M, operating at 32¢ on the dollar of what each child needs.

What is the autism program gap of roughly $385M (as estimated on this page)?

The $385M gap is the difference between the FAO's 2020 published estimate ($1.35B) and the 2026 budget ($965M). However, this figure is based on a 2020 population estimate of 40,700 children. The current registration of 91,974 means ETWO's estimate of the annual need is $3.05B–$3.68B, with an estimated funding gap of $2.09B–$2.71B.

How has actual autism program spending per registered child changed in the last two years of actuals?

Public Accounts actual spending grew 18% ($691.2M in 2023-24 to $814.6M in 2025-26) while registration grew 28% (70,176 on February 29, 2024 to 89,799 on March 4, 2026). Actual spending per registered child went from $9,849 in 2023-24 to $9,071 in 2025-26, a 8% decline. For 2023-24 and 2025-26 the registration counts are exact and dated. Years with no like-for-like registration count (2019-20 to 2022-23 and 2024-25) are not shown. The 2026-27 budget of $965M works out to $10,492 per registered child; that is a budget, not spending.

How many children are on the Ontario autism waitlist?

As of May 2026, 91,974 children are registered with the Ontario Autism Program. Of these, 20,711 (22.5%) have active funding agreements. The remaining 71,263 (77.5%) are waiting.

What does the 2026 Ontario budget allocate to autism?

The 2026 Ontario Budget allocates $965M to the Ontario Autism Program for 2026-27, an increase of $186M, described as "the largest single-year increase in program history." The budget sets no waitlist reduction targets or clearance timelines.

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