Data Analysis
Budget Day AnalysisEnd The Wait Ontario · March 26, 2026 · Budget Day Analysis · Based on FAO reports, FOI data, IPC statements, and the 2026 Ontario Budget.
$965M
OAP Budget 2026-27
67,509
Children Without Funding
33¢
On the Dollar vs. FAO Need
-26%
Per-Child Change Since 2020
The baseline figure
The widely cited shortfall — and why it's already obsolete.
FAO annual need
$1.35B
2026-27 budget
$965M
Annual shortfall
$385M
In July 2020, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario published Autism Services — A Financial Review. fao The FAO estimated that clearing the waitlist would cost approximately $1.35 billion per year. This was based on an estimated 40,700 children with ASD in Ontario, at an average annual total program cost of approximately $33,170 per child (including ~$29,900 for therapy plus administration and non-clinical costs).
This number is stale
The FAO calculated $1.35B for 40,700 children (2020 estimate). As of January 2026, 88,175 children are registered — a 117% increase. foi The FAO has not published an updated autism-specific cost estimate. The commonly cited $385M gap significantly underestimates the true shortfall.
Source: FAO, “Autism Services — A Financial Review,” July 21, 2020. fao 2026 Ontario Budget p.269-270. budget CBC FOI Jan 2026 (OAP progress report). foi
Record spending, falling value
Despite record absolute spending, the money per child is falling. Registration growth is outrunning funding growth.
Registration
+117%
40,700 → 88,175
Funding
+61%
$600M → $965M
Per Child
-26%
$14,742 → $11,004
In 2019-20, the $600M OAP budget divided across the ~40,700 eligible population yielded $14,742 per child. Today, after the largest single-year funding increase in program history, it yields $10,944 per child. budget The FAO says adequate services require approximately $33,170 per child. fao In an illustrative scenario based on FAO 2020 unit costs applied to current registration, approximately 33 cents of each OAP dollar reaches the level the FAO calculated each child needs.
The FAO calculated adequate services require ~$33,170 per child per year. The 2026-27 budget yields $10,944 per child — a gap of $22,163 per child, every year.
Methodological note
Per-child figures divide total OAP budget by total registered population. They are illustrative of average program capacity — actual individual allocations range from $6,600 to $65,000 based on assessed need. fao Not all registered children may be actively seeking services; the government does not publish deregistration data.
Sources: 2019-20 — FAO 2020. fao 2023-24 — FAO 2024 MCCSS Review. fao 2025-26 — 2025 Ontario Budget. 2026-27 — 2026 Budget p.269. budget Registration — CBC FOI Jan 2026. foi
FAO methodology applied to current data
We applied the FAO's own published methodology to current data. Each scenario uses a different assumption. All three show the same thing: the gap is far larger than $385M.
Scenario 1: The established baseline
FAO Published Estimate
$1.35B
Gap: $385M
Population: ~40,700 · Per child: $33,170 · FAO estimated ~40,700 children at ~$29,900/child therapy plus admin = ~$33,170 total. Published total: ~$1.35B.
Scenario 2: The updated arithmetic
FAO Methodology, Current Population
$2.92B
Gap: $1.96B
Population: 88,175 · Per child: $33,170 · FAO per-child cost ($33,170) × current registration (88,175). Uses 2020 costs without inflation — conservative.
Scenario 3: The full picture
Inflation-Adjusted to 2025
$3.53B
Gap: $2.56B
Population: 88,175 · Per child: $40,003 · Per-child cost adjusted for cumulative Ontario CPI 2020–2025 (+20.6%). FAO 2024 $34,000 avg core allocation consistent with ~$40,000 total.
Cross-validation: FAO 2024 marginal cost
The FAO's 2024 data provides an independent check. At $600M, the program fully funds 10,142 children. At $723M, it funds 12,629. fao That's an incremental cost of ~$49,457 per marginal child (including proportional overhead). At that rate, serving all 88,175 would cost ~$4.4B — even higher than the inflation-adjusted scenario. This cross-validation suggests the estimates may be conservative — the marginal cost approach yields a higher figure.
Government's stated position
In response to the FAO's June 2024 MCCSS Spending Plan Review, the Ministry stated that “the FAO's opinions are not representative of actual government spending” and noted it had “met our target of 20,000 children enrolled in Core Clinical Services.” The ministry further stated that it does not “allocate core clinical services funding based on average amounts” and therefore could not confirm the FAO's per-child calculations. pub
Our response: The government's position that it doesn't allocate based on averages is technically correct — individual allocations range from $6,600 to $65,000. But averages are the standard tool for estimating total program cost across a population. The FAO is the Legislature's independent fiscal analyst. Its methodology is public. The government has not published an alternative cost estimate for serving all registered children.
Scenario 1 — FAO 2020 report. fao Scenario 2 — FAO per-child × FOI registration. foi Scenario 3 — CPI from budget Chapter 2, Economic Outlook tables. budget Cross-validation — FAO 2024 Tables 2-3. fao MCCSS response — CBC News, June 5, 2024. pub
OAP spending allocation
Less than half of OAP spending reaches children as core clinical services.
Source: MCCSS FOI documents (The Trillium, July 2024); FAO MCCSS Spending Plan Review (June 2024). fao
The workforce constraint
The FAO warned in both 2020 and 2024 that even with full funding, Ontario may not have enough qualified therapists.
“There is a risk that the delivery of the new OAP could be constrained by the supply of needs-based therapeutic services for children and youth on the autism spectrum.”
Six years after the FAO flagged the workforce constraint, the government has not published a workforce capacity assessment for autism services. The 2026 budget allocates funding to “strengthen sector capacity” budget but sets no workforce targets, training quotas, or capacity benchmarks.
What a credible clearance plan requires
A phased funding increase paired with a workforce development strategy: training seats, supervision capacity, regional distribution targets, and annual public reporting on both funding andservice delivery metrics. The government's own primary care plan does this — it names attachment targets (300,000 by July 2026), timelines, and ongoing progress reporting. budget The autism program has none of these.
Illustrative phased scenario
What annual investment would be required to reach all 88,175 registered children by 2030-31, using the FAO's scaled methodology ($2.9B target).
The annual increment
This plan requires adding approximately $385M per yearfor five years. That is exactly the FAO's original published gap — applied incrementally. In the context of a $13.8B deficit and $244.2 billion total provincial spending, each annual increment is 0.16% of total spending.
Illustrative scenario. Uses FAO 2020 per-child methodology scaled to current registration. Actual ramp would depend on workforce capacity, needs assessments, and registration trends.
Two waitlists, two standards
The same budget that increases autism funding restricts the tools families use to verify how that funding is spent. Two waitlists held to completely different standards.
Health Care Connect Waitlist
NAMED IN BUDGET↓ 87%
Named by program · % reduction reported · Clearance target: “spring 2026” · Progress updates
Budget p.123: “reduced by more than 87 per cent”
Ontario Autism Program Waitlist
NOT NAMED88,175
Not named in budget · No % reduction · No clearance target · No timeline
Budget p.136: Two paragraphs. No waitlist number. No mention of AccessOAP or the FAO.
What the budget actually says about autism
“This new investment will enable more children and youth to access core clinical services while further strengthening sector capacity across the province. It also builds on the government's ongoing work to modernize and enhance the Ontario Autism Program to better meet the needs of families.”
That is the complete OAP section from the budget (p.136). budget No numbers. No targets. No accountability mechanism.
Freedom of Information threat
The same budget announces proposed changes to Ontario's Freedom of Information law — exempting the Premier's office, cabinet ministers, and parliamentary assistants from FOI requests.
“The most alarming proposal would prevent Ontarians from accessing any government information held by the Premier, cabinet ministers, elected officials, and political staff.”
Every waitlist number on EndTheWaitOntario.com comes from FOI requests. The 88,175 figure. The funding breakdowns. The AccessOAP data. These amendments would make future requests harder, slower, and less complete — right as the government increases autism spending without accountability targets. ipc
Government's stated position
Minister Crawford stated the changes would bring Ontario “more closely in line with practices used in other jurisdictions across Canada.” The government noted Ontario is one of only two provinces that doesn't exclude ministerial records from FOI. Government decisions communicated to the public service, including formal direction from ministers, would continue to be subject to access rules. gov
Budget p.139 (FIPPA section). budget IPC Commissioner Statement, March 13, 2026. ipc Government position: Ontario news release, March 13, 2026. gov
Open methodology
Every step, assumption, and limitation — stated explicitly.
Scenario 1: FAO Published Estimate
Source: FAO, "Autism Services — A Financial Review," July 2020. Method: FAO estimated ~40,700 children. At ~$29,900/child therapy + admin = ~$33,170 total. Published need: ~$1.35B. Gap: $1,350M − $965M = $385M. Limitation: Based on 2020 population; registration has grown 115%.
Scenario 2: Population-Scaled
Sources: FAO 2020 + CBC FOI Jan 2026. Derived per-child: $1,350,000,000 ÷ 40,700 = $33,170. Applied to current: 88,175 × $33,170 = $2,909M. Gap: $2,909M − $965M = $1,944M (~$1.94B). Conservative: uses 2020 costs without inflation adjustment.
Scenario 3: Inflation-Adjusted
Sources: FAO 2020 + FOI 2025 + Budget CPI (Chapter 2, Economic Outlook tables). Ontario CPI cumulative 2020-2025: +20.6%. Adjusted per-child: $33,170 × 1.206 = $40,003. Total: 88,175 × $40,003 = $3,508M. Gap: $3,508M − $965M = $2,543M (~$2.5B). Cross-check: FAO 2024 avg core allocation $34,000 therapy-only → ~$40K total with overhead.
Cross-Validation: Marginal Cost
Source: FAO MCCSS Review 2024. At $600M → 10,142 children. At $723M → 12,629. Incremental: $123M ÷ 2,487 = $49,457/child. Full: 88,175 × $49,457 = ~$4,337M (~$4.3B). Highest estimate — confirms Scenarios 2-3 are conservative.
Important Limitations
Questions for public debate
These are questions for public debate, not accusations or conclusions.
Verification record
Corrections & Right of Reply
End The Wait Ontario is committed to factual accuracy. If any figure, attribution, legal citation, or characterization in this analysis is inaccurate, we will correct it promptly and publish a dated note of correction. Organizations and individuals referenced in this analysis are invited to contact us with corrections, clarifications, or responses, which we will publish in full or in relevant part. Contact: endthewaitontario.com/contact
No corrections have been issued as of March 26, 2026.
Legal disclaimer: This analysis presents advocacy arguments based on publicly available data and independent fiscal analysis. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or policy advice. No allegation of wrongdoing, fraud, impropriety, or breach of contract is made or implied against any individual, organization, or government entity. All claims of fact are attributed to specific, verifiable sources. This analysis uses no anonymous sources, leaked documents, or confidential information.
Independence: End The Wait Ontario is a parent-led advocacy group. We are not affiliated with the Ontario government, the Ontario Autism Coalition, Autism Ontario, or the FAO. Non-partisan: We advocate on policy outcomes and do not endorse any political party.
Verified Facts
88,175 — children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
23.4% — Only 20,666 children have active funding agreements () — less than one in four
$965M — Ontario allocated to the Ontario Autism Program in 2026-27
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism — timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement
According to the FAO (2020 report), OAP funding covers less than one-third of estimated need at 2018-19 service levels
FAO benchmark: $33,170/child (dashed line)
| Year | Children | Budget | Per Child |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019–20 | 40,700 | $600M | $14,742 |
| 2023–24 | 70,176 | $691M | $9,847 |
| 2025–26 | 88,175 | $965M | $10,944 |
| 2026–27 | 88,175 | $965M | $10,944 |
Each dot ≈ 44 children · 88,175 total
| Status | Count | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Funded | 20,666 | 23.4% |
| Waiting | 67,509 | 76.6% |
| Total | 88,175 | 100% |
33 filledof 100 — the ratio of actual to adequate per-child funding
| Metric | Amount |
|---|---|
| Budget per child | $11,004 |
| FAO adequate cost | $33,170 |
| Ratio | 33% |
| Gap per child/year | $22,163 |
| Scenario | Annual Need | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Current budget | $965M | — |
| FAO Published Estimate | $1.35B | $385M |
| FAO Methodology, Current Population | $2.92B | $1.96B |
| Inflation-Adjusted to 2025 | $3.53B | $2.56B |
| Category | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Core clinical | $307.3M | 44.5% |
| Urgent response | $58.9M | 8.5% |
| AccessOAP ops | $57.9M | 8.4% |
| Entry to school | $54.7M | 7.9% |
| Legacy programs | $104M | 15% |
| Other / unallocated | $108.4M | 15.7% |
| Year | Budget | Children Served | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026–27 | $1.0B | 20,000 | 23% |
| 2027–28 | $1.4B | 35,000 | 40% |
| 2028–29 | $1.8B | 52,000 | 59% |
| 2029–30 | $2.4B | 72,000 | 82% |
| 2030–31 | $2.9B | 88,175 | 100% |