How We Calculate Autism Costs: Our Methodology

Data Sources and Base Estimates

Our primary data sources include: Buescher et al. (2014) for lifetime cost frameworks, the Public Health Agency of Canada (2023) for Canadian-specific cost data, the Ontario Financial Accountability Office (2024) for OAP program data, and Autism Ontario's Family Survey (2023) for out-of-pocket spending data from 2,300+ Ontario families.

Base cost estimates use the Buescher et al. framework adjusted for Canadian healthcare delivery, Ontario cost of living, and current service prices. We validate adjusted figures against the Public Health Agency of Canada's independent estimates and Autism Ontario's reported family expenditures.

Cost Categories and Calculation Methods

We divide costs into five categories: (1) direct therapy costs (ABA, speech-language pathology, occupational therapy, psychology), (2) educational support costs (tutoring, educational assistants, specialized programs), (3) medical and health costs (physician visits, medications, allied health), (4) lost caregiver productivity (reduced employment, career limitations), and (5) residential and daily living costs (for adults requiring supported living).

Each category uses Ontario-specific rates from the most recent available sources. Therapy costs are based on published rate schedules from Ontario professional colleges and validated against family-reported spending. Lost productivity estimates use Statistics Canada labour force data and caregiver survey results.

We calculate costs at three support-need levels — Level 1 (requiring support), Level 2 (requiring substantial support), and Level 3 (requiring very substantial support) — aligned with DSM-5 severity levels. Each level has distinct cost profiles reflecting the different intensity and duration of services needed.

Assumptions and Limitations

Key assumptions include: costs are in 2025 Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted; inflation is applied using Statistics Canada CPI data; therapy intensity assumptions follow evidence-based practice guidelines from Ontario Association for Behaviour Analysis and Speech-Language & Audiology Canada; caregiver productivity losses assume Ontario median employment income.

Known limitations: our model does not capture the full range of family costs (e.g., relationship strain, sibling impacts, housing modifications), regional cost variations within Ontario are not fully reflected, and we cannot account for informal supports provided by extended family or community. We explicitly state these limitations alongside all published estimates.