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If the current net growth rate holds, an estimated 72,333 children could be waiting without funded Ontario autism services about a year out, roughly early 2027. That starts from the 67,509 children waiting as of January 7, 2026 and adds an estimated net increase of about 402 unfunded children per month. Within about two years, roughly early 2028, the estimate rises to about 77,157. This is a projection, not a measured count.
These are straight-line projections. They take the 67,509 children waiting as of January 7, 2026 and add an estimated net increase of about 402 children per month. They assume the registration and enrollment rates stay constant. They are approximate scenarios, not measured counts or an official forecast.
The starting point is the 67,509 children who were registered in the Ontario Autism Program but waiting without funded services as of January 7, 2026, per CBC News freedom-of-information data. From there, the waitlist grows by the gap between two monthly rates.
About 850 children register for the program each month. Only about 448 start funded services in the same period. The difference, an estimated 402 children a month, is added to the group waiting. Over 12 months that is roughly 4,824 more children. Over 24 months it is roughly 9,648 more.
Because the funded share has stayed roughly flat per CBC FOI, and because CBC documented periods where the number of funded children fell, the net growth used here is a conservative estimate. CBC News documented periods where the number of funded children fell even as registrations grew (in one two-week period 151 fewer children were funded while 456 more registered), so the real net could be higher than this straight-line estimate.
This is a simple straight-line estimate. It assumes the monthly registration rate of about 850 and the estimated funded-enrollment rate of about 448 both stay the same through 2027. Real rates can change if the program funds more children, if registrations rise or fall, or if the budget shifts.
The projection also does not include children who are still awaiting an autism diagnosis and cannot yet register. The figures count only children already registered in the Ontario Autism Program. The true number of children needing services is larger than the registered count.
The monthly growth rate behind this projection.
The current total the projection starts from.
Why the funded share of 23.4% stays low.
Primary source. Bi-weekly Ontario Autism Program progress reports covering late June 2024 through early January 2026, obtained through freedom of information. Source for the 67,509 children waiting and the monthly registration rate this projection is built on.
Verified Facts
OAP registrations jumped 21% since mid-2024, with the number of funded children dipping in some periods despite hundreds more registering
88,175, children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
23.4%, Only 20,666 children have active funding agreements () — less than one in four
$965M, Ontario allocated to the Ontario Autism Program in 2026-27
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism — timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement