OAP registrations jumped 21% since mid-2024, with the number of funded children dipping in some periods despite hundreds more registering
Direct answer
If the current net growth rate holds, an estimated 77,612 children could be waiting without an active Core Funding Agreement by December 2026. That starts from the 71,263 children waiting as of May 13, 2026 and adds an estimated net increase of about 907 unfunded children per month for 7 months. By December 2027, the estimate is 88,496. This is a projection, not a measured count.
MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information · CBC News, Ontario autism services FOI investigation (2026-03-30) · Verified 2026-08-10
In brief
In short
- As of May 13, 2026, 71,263 children were waiting without an active Core Funding Agreement
- About 907 more unfunded children are added each month (estimated net growth)
- By December 2026, an estimated 77,612 children could be waiting if rates hold
- By December 2027, an estimated 88,496 children could be waiting
The projection at a glance
| Period | Waiting without an active Core Funding Agreement | Source |
|---|---|---|
| As of May 2026 | 71,263 | MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information |
| Estimated by December 2026 | ~77,612 | End The Wait Ontario straight-line estimate |
| Estimated by December 2027 | ~88,496 | End The Wait Ontario straight-line estimate |
How the projection works
The starting point is the 71,263 children who were registered in the Ontario Autism Program but waiting without an active Core Funding Agreement as of May 13, 2026, per MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information. From there, the waitlist grows by the measured net monthly rate.
The projection applies the measured net monthly rate of 907 for 7 months to December 2026 and for 19 months to December 2027.
Because the funded share has stayed roughly flat per CBC FOI, and because CBC documented periods where the number of funded children fell, the net growth used here is a conservative estimate. CBC News documented periods where the number of funded children fell even as registrations grew (in one two-week period 151 fewer children were funded while 456 more registered), so the real net could be higher than this straight-line estimate.
What the projection assumes
This is a simple straight-line estimate. It assumes the monthly registration rate of about 918 and the estimated funded-enrollment rate of about 11 both stay the same through 2027. Real rates can change if the program funds more children, if registrations rise or fall, or if the budget shifts.
The projection also does not include children who are still awaiting an autism diagnosis and cannot yet register. The figures count only children already registered in the Ontario Autism Program. The true number of children needing services is larger than the registered count.
Frequently Asked Questions
If the current net growth rate holds, an estimated 77,612 children could be waiting without an active Core Funding Agreement by December 2026. That is a projection, not a measured count. It starts from the 71,263 children waiting as of May 13, 2026 and adds estimated net monthly growth over 7 months. By December 2027, the estimate rises to 88,496, using 19 months of growth.
The projection takes the 71,263 children waiting without an active Core Funding Agreement as of May 13, 2026 and adds an estimated net increase of about 907 unfunded children per month. About 918 children register each month and active Core Funding Agreements increased by about 11 per month in the measured period. The difference is the net growth. This is a simple straight-line estimate that assumes the rates stay constant.
Not at current rates. Funded enrollment would need to reach about 918 children per month to stop the waitlist from growing: matching the rate at which children register. Today funded enrollment is estimated at about 11 per month. Because enrollment is slower than registration, the backlog cannot be cleared at the current pace.
No. The government has not published a projection of the future waitlist. This estimate is calculated by End The Wait Ontario. The baseline is 71,263 children waiting as of May 13, 2026 (MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information). The projection applies the measured net monthly growth from January 7 to May 13, 2026. It is an approximate scenario, not a measured count or official forecast.
Related answers
- How fast is the Ontario autism waitlist growing?
The monthly growth rate behind this projection.
- How many children are on the Ontario autism waitlist?
The current total the projection starts from.
- What percentage of registered children get funded autism services?
Why the funded share of 22.5% stays low.
Sources
MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information
Baseline source. MCCSS OAP progress report as of May 13, 2026. Source for the 71,263 children waiting without an active Core Funding Agreement that this projection starts from.
CBC News, Ontario autism services FOI investigation (2026-03-30) (opens in a new tab)
Growth-rate source. Bi-weekly Ontario Autism Program progress reports covering late June 2024 through early January 2026, obtained through freedom of information. Source for the monthly registration and enrollment rates used to project forward from the May 2026 baseline.
Tell your MPP the projection points up
At current rates, an estimated 77,612 children could be waiting by December 2026. 71,263 are already waiting.
- MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information. Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services (Ontario), obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition (May 13, 2026)
- CBC News freedom-of-information investigation into Ontario Autism Program bi-weekly progress reports. CBC News (January 7, 2026)
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Facts5
Sources4
91,974
children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
22.5%
Only 20,711 children have active funding agreements (22.5%), less than one in four
$965M
Ontario allocated $965M to the Ontario Autism Program in 2026-27
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism. Timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement
Last system verification: 2026-08-10. Next scheduled update: 2026-11-05.
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