Budget snapshot
Source: MCCSS FOI · Mar 2026 · Verified 2026-06-13
Trend
Actual OAP expenditure, 2023-24 through 2023-24, in Canadian dollars (millions), against the Financial Accountability Office's 2020 estimate of what it would cost to eliminate the waitlist at 2018-19 service levels.
| Year | Actual Spending | FAO Estimate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | $608.0M | $1350.0M | $742.0M |
| 2020-21 | $600.0M | $1350.0M | $750.0M |
| 2021-22 | $600.0M | $1350.0M | $750.0M |
| 2022-23 | $628.0M | $1350.0M | $722.0M |
| 2023-24 | $691.0M | $1350.0M | $659.0M |
| 2024-25 | $723.0M | $1350.0M | $627.0M |
Methodology
The FAO's 2020 estimate ($1.35B) was built for approximately 40,700 children at 2018-19 service levels. With 89,799children now registered, ETWO's analysis (applying that same FAO methodology to current counts) treats the FAO figure as a floor, not a ceiling — the deeper breakdown is on the Cost to Clear the Waitlist page.
What it means
$965Mis the largest single-year OAP allocation on record. Measured against the FAO's 2020 estimate, that still leaves a $385M shortfall in 2026-27 alone — and the FAO estimate predates the current registration count, so the real-world gap is larger than the headline number.
See the full calculationGo deeper
Three calculations applying FAO methodology to current counts show the real funding gap is $1.9B–$2.5B, not the $385M claimed. A line-by-line breakdown of what it would actually take.
Ontario's Budget 2026 allocated $965M to the Ontario Autism Program. Here is what that number means, what it omits, and what the FAO says is needed.
Tracking OAP spending commitments through 2026, quarterly updates as budget line items are confirmed or revised.
How many children are on the Ontario autism waitlist in 2026?
As of March 4, 2026, 89,799 children are registered with the Ontario Autism Program. However, only 20,633 (23%) have an active Core Funding Agreement. This represents approximately 290% growth in registrations since 2019, with 69,166 children still waiting for essential funding.
Source: OAC FOI Mar 2026, FAO Report 2024 · Verify Link
Is the Ontario Autism Program underfunded?
Yes. The Financial Accountability Office (FAO) determined that $1.35 billion annually is needed to serve all registered children at 2018-19 service levels. The 2026-27 Ontario Budget allocated $965 million, leaving an estimated $385M+ annual shortfall. This gap is the primary driver of the perpetual 89,799+ child waitlist.
Source: Financial Accountability Office of Ontario [FAO] · Verify Link
What is the funding gap for the Ontario Autism Program in 2026?
The Ontario government faces a massive structural funding gap for the OAP. While 89,799 children are registered, the 2026-27 Ontario Budget allocated $965 million, up from $779 million in 2025-26, which covers services for only ~23% of registered children. The FAO projected in 2020 that $1.35 billion annually was needed at 2018-19 service levels; with registrations now nearly four times higher, independent analyses suggest the true cost of full coverage may reach up to $2 billion annually.
Source: Ontario Budget 2026; FAO Report 2020 & 2023-24; CBC FOI Jan 2026 · Verify Link
Written by Spencer Carroll
Founder & Autism Advocate
Evidence on this page
Key claims are paired with their source, evidence tier, and verification date so readers can inspect the public record directly.
$965M
Ontario allocated $965M to the Ontario Autism Program in 2026-27
According to the FAO (2020 report), OAP funding covers less than one-third of estimated need at 2018-19 service levels
89,799
children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
23%
Only 20,633 children have active funding agreements (23%) — less than one in four
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism — timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement