- Claim: Retain the actual statement and the date it was made.
- Measure: Check what is counted and what is excluded.
- Conclusion: State only the finding supported by that comparison.
ETWO compares budget, service and registration measures. These are analysis topics, not attributed quotations from government officials.
The FAO’s 2020 scenario used 2018–19 service levels and then-projected demand. The difference between its rounded $1.35B scenario and the current $965M budget is not an FAO estimate of a current shortfall.
Financial Accountability Office; Ontario budget · Updated
A budget increase is only meaningful if it keeps pace with need.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · Updated May 13, 2026
Only 20,711 children have signed Core Funding Agreements for ongoing clinical therapy. The 40,000 figure is a conflated metric.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · Updated May 13, 2026
The 40,000 figure combines clinical care with one-time interim payments of $5,500–$22,000. Receiving a one-time cheque is not equivalent to receiving funded clinical therapy.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026; Financial Accountability Office · Updated
Families report waiting 5+ years for families registered in August 2021 (community-reported, Ontario Autism Coalition, July 2026) before a funding invitation.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · Updated May 13, 2026
A needs-based system that caps funding by annual budget allocation functions as a rationing mechanism with a needs test attached. Total funding allocations remain capped by the ministry's annual ceiling, not aggregate clinical need.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026; Financial Accountability Office · Updated
The derived historical comparison reports a net change of 907 children without an active agreement per month. It is not a forecast or a measure of service receipt.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · Updated
Absolute enrollment increasing is not the same as the number of registered children without an active funding agreement shrinking.
MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 · Updated
Documentation & Methodology
| Record | Finding or measure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FAO 2020 estimate | A nominal comparison with the historical 2026-27 budget (ETWO calculation applying FAO methodology). | Financial Accountability Office |
| OAC FOI update | MCCSS Ontario Autism Program figures, May 13, 2026, obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition under Freedom of Information | OAC FOI update |
| OAC FOI Analysis | +907 net unfunded children per month. | OAC FOI Analysis |
| Current source | MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 | MCCSS FOI via OAC · May 2026 |
Records listed above · Updated