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The children behind the claims
These approaches are evidence-based. Access to them is not.
Registered
87,692Children registered
Total in the Ontario Autism Program queue
CBC FOI Jan 2026
Funded
20,293Have active funding
Just 23.1% of registered children
CBC FOI Jan 2026
Waiting
67,399Still waiting
Registered. Diagnosed. Un-funded.
CBC FOI Jan 2026
Verified — CBC FOI Jan 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Children registered | 87,692 |
| Have active funding | 20,293 |
| Still waiting | 67,399 |
The government regularly cites budget increases as evidence of commitment to the program. Ministers reference increases over successive budgets, with the 2026-27 allocation at $965M (up from $779M in 2025-26).
Short answer:
Doubling an insufficient number produces an insufficient result. The FAO identified $1.35 billion as the minimum required at 2018-19 service levels. The 2026-27 budget is $965 million — 71% of what was modelled in 2020 for a much smaller registered cohort.
| Data Point | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Government claim | OAP budget has grown substantially (~$600M → $965M) | MCCSS budget announcements |
| FAO finding | $1.35 billion annual minimum required to meaningfully serve all registered children | Financial Accountability Office of Ontario |
| Current gap | $965M budget vs. $1.35B required = $385M annual shortfall (FAO 2020 at 2018-19 levels) | FAO analysis + MCCSS 2026-27 budget |
| Waitlist outcome | While the budget increased, the waitlist grew from 70,176 (FAO 2023-24) to 87,692 (Dec 2025) — a 25% increase in under two years | FAO 2023-24 Report + FOI-MCSS-2025-12-10 |
A budget increase is only meaningful if it keeps pace with need. The FAO has repeatedly found that OAP's annual funding increases have been smaller than the growth in new registrations — meaning the gap widens each year, regardless of the dollar increase cited.
Government ministers regularly cite a figure of approximately 40,000 children receiving OAP support. This figure has been used in Question Period, press releases, and budget documents to suggest the program is functioning at scale.
Short answer:
This figure combines children receiving core clinical services with those who received one-time interim payments of $5,000–$20,000. Only 20,293 children — 23.1% of registrants — have signed Core Funding Agreements providing ongoing services.
| Data Point | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Government figure | ~40,000 children "receiving support" | MCCSS ministerial statements |
| Core Funding Agreements (ongoing services) | 20,293 children — 23.1% of all registrants | FOI-MCSS-2025-12-10 |
| Enrolled in core (invitation accepted, may await DON/funding) | 20,293 children | FOI-MCSS-2025-12-10 |
| Registered but unfunded | 67,399 children — 76.9% of all registrants | FOI-MCSS-2025-12-10 |
Core clinical ABA services cost approximately $34,000–$80,000 per year for a child who needs intensive support. One-time interim payments of $5,000–$20,000 — which appear to be included in the government's count of "support received" — are not clinical services. Receiving a single cheque is not the same as receiving funded therapy. In our view, combining these categories makes the figure difficult for families to rely on when assessing the state of OAP services.
The government describes the 2019 OAP reform as creating a "needs-based" system, meaning families receive funding proportional to their child's assessed needs rather than a flat subsidy. This is presented as a fairer, more individualized model.
Short answer:
The determination of needs (DON) process exists, but the majority of registered families cannot reach it. Children wait years after registration before receiving a DON invitation — a wait that directly contradicts the premise of needs-based responsiveness.
| Data Point | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Average wait for services | Approximately 5 years — no published government target or service-level guarantee | FOI-MCSS-2025-12-10, OAC parent reports |
| What "needs-based" means in practice | A 4+ hour phone-based assessment, followed by a funding determination, followed by a core service invitation — each with its own queue | MCCSS OAP program guide |
| Budget cap reality | Funding levels are ultimately constrained by the annual budget allocation, not by assessed need. The FAO has confirmed the program cannot serve all registered children at current funding. | FAO Ontario Autism Report |
| Children in critical 0–6 window | No urgency-based stream exists for children in the critical 0–6 developmental window. They wait the same queue as older children. | MCCSS program documentation |
In our view, "needs-based" is the design, but "budget-capped" is the execution. A system that assesses needs but cannot fund them is not, in practice, truly needs-based — it functions as a rationing system with a needs assessment attached. The FAO has confirmed this dynamic: the program design is sound, but the funding is insufficient to deliver on its stated premise.
Government communications and ministerial responses often cite recent enrollment increases as evidence of progress, suggesting the program is heading in the right direction.
Short answer:
New enrollments are occurring, but they are outpaced by new registrations. The net unfunded waitlist grew by an estimated 526 children per month in 2025. Progress requires enrollment to exceed registration — and that is not happening.
| Data Point | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly new registrations (2024–25) | ~974 new children per month | FOI-MCSS-2025-12-10 (annualized rate) |
| Monthly new core enrollments (2024–25) | ~448 new core enrollments per month | FOI-MCSS-2025-12-10 (annualized rate) |
| Net monthly waitlist growth | ~526 new unfunded children per month (registrations outpace enrollments) | Calculated from OAC FOI data (Dec 2024 vs Dec 2025 registration/enrollment counts) |
| Projected waitlist (Dec 2026) | ~73,711 children without funded services, if current trajectory continues | Projected from OAC FOI trend data (net +526 unfunded children/month) |
Absolute enrollment numbers increasing is not the same as the waitlist shrinking. As long as new registrations exceed new enrollments, the net waitlist grows. In effect, the "progress" framing highlights enrollment gains without accounting for the faster growth in registrations. This dynamic is not disputed — the FAO has modeled the same trajectory.
This page is designed for journalists, opposition MPP staff, parents at community meetings, and anyone who encounters the government's standard talking points on OAP.
Each claim is documented with the specific language the government uses, the evidence that contradicts it, and a plain-English rebuttal. All sources are either government documents, FAO reports, or primary FOI responses — nothing that can be dismissed as advocacy estimation.
If you encounter a government claim about OAP that is not addressed here, contact us. New claims are added as they appear in public record.
Find your next step
01 · For new families
Step-by-step guide to OAP registration, interim therapy options, and what to expect during the wait.
02 · Already waiting
Estimate your wait time, find funded interim services near you, and track your OAP status.
03 · Take action
Email your MPP with one click, share verified data, and advocate for system-wide reform.
Verified Facts
87,692 — children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
According to the FAO (2020 report), OAP funding covers less than one-third of estimated need at 2018-19 service levels
$965M — Ontario allocated to the Ontario Autism Program in 2026-27
23.1% — Only 20,293 children have active funding agreements () — less than one in four
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism — timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement