On the public record
FOI-Verified Data
Ontario Autism Waitlist Trends 2018–2026
Key finding
Under the Ford government, the Ontario Autism Program waitlist grew from approximately 23,000 children at the time of the 2019 program redesign to 89,799 children by March 2026 — an increase of ~290%. During that same period, the number of children receiving funded services grew by only around 3,600 (from approximately 17,000 to 20,633).
The 2019 baseline (~23,000) is approximate. The government did not publish exact real-time registration counts in 2019. The March 2026 figure (89,799) is verified via Ontario Autism Coalition FOI of the OAP bi-weekly progress report dated March 4, 2026.
Year-by-Year Waitlist Data
Annual OAP registration snapshots from 2018 to March 2026. Figures marked “Verified” are sourced directly from government reports or FOI data. “Estimated” and “Approximate” figures are derived from known anchor points and OAC tracking.
| Year | Total Registered | Waiting (Unfunded) | Funded | Budget ($M) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 8,500 | — | — | $302M | Approximate |
| 2019 (baseline) | 23,000 | — | — | $600M | Approximate |
| 2020 | 30,000 | 13,000 | 17,000 | $600M | Estimated |
| 2021 | 40,000 | 26,000 | 14,000 | $600M | Estimated |
| 2022 | 50,000 | 35,000 | 15,000 | $662M | Estimated |
| 2023 | 60,000 | 40,034 | 19,966 | $779M | Verified |
| 2024 (mid-year) | 72,871 | 52,871 | 20,000 | $779M | Verified |
| 2025 (projection) | 85,000 | 65,000 | 20,000 | $779M | Estimated |
| Jan 2026 | 88,175 | 67,509 | 20,666 | $965M | Verified |
| Mar 2026 | 89,799 | 69,166 | 20,633 | $965M | Verified |
| Sources: CBC News FOI (Jan 2026), FAO MCCSS Spending Plan Review (2023-24), Ontario Autism Coalition historical tracking. Years 2020–2022 are estimates derived from known anchor points. See source notes below. | |||||
Growth Rate Analysis
How fast the waitlist is growing and what it means for children waiting today.
Since 2019 baseline
~290%
Growth in total OAP registrations since the April 2019 program redesign. From ~23,000 to 89,799.
Net monthly growth
+402
New unfunded children added to the waitlist each month on a net basis. Monthly registrations (~850) exceed new funding agreements (~448).
Recent growth rate
+21%
Registrations grew 21% over an 18-month period (mid-2024 to January 2026), according to CBC News FOI data covering OAP progress reports.
Projected Trajectory
At the current net monthly growth rate of 402 children per month, the waitlist is projected to grow substantially without a significant increase in funded service capacity.
| Date | Projected Children Waiting (Unfunded) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| March 2026 (actual) | 69,166 | OAC FOI verified |
| December 2026 (projected) | ~73,990 | At 402/mo net growth |
| December 2027 (projected) | ~78,814 | At 402/mo net growth |
| Projections assume current enrollment rate (~448 new funded children/month) and registration rate (~850/month) remain constant. To stop growth, enrollment must match registration. To clear the backlog in 5 years, the system would need to add ~2,003 children per month — approximately 4.5x the current rate. | ||
Why the waitlist cannot clear at current rates
The OAP currently enrolls approximately 448 new children per month into funded services. New registrations arrive at approximately 850 per month. The net result is 402 additional unfunded children every month. Enrollment would need to reach at least 850/month just to stop the waitlist from growing — without making any progress on the existing 69,166 children already waiting.
Key Policy Milestones
Policy decisions and program changes that shaped the waitlist trajectory from 2018 to present.
Ford Government Elected
Program changeProgressive Conservative government elected. Campaign had promised to maintain autism services. Within months, program restructuring began.
Flat-Rate Funding Announced
Funding changeGovernment announced a flat-rate funding model ($20,000/year or $5,000/year for school-age children) regardless of individual therapy needs. This replaced the previous needs-based IBI model.
Largest Autism Protest in Ontario History
Public actionThousands of parents and children descended on Queen's Park. Described as the largest autism protest in Ontario history. Government announced a policy review within days.
Needs-Based Funding Promised
Government announcementGovernment announced a return to needs-based funding. New OAP structure announced. Implementation timeline and details left unclear, with phased rollout stretching years.
COVID-19: Services Suspended
Crisis pointIn-person autism therapy services suspended across Ontario. Children already on long waitlists lost their spots in service. New registrations continued while funded service delivery stalled.
Core Clinical Services Launch
Program changeNew Core Clinical Services model launched. Funding range of $6,600 to $65,000 per year. Waitlist for the new service grew immediately as eligibility was extended.
FAO Spending Plan Review
Official reportFinancial Accountability Office reviewed MCCSS spending plan. Reported 70,176 registered with OAP and only 19,966 receiving core services. Funding gap documented.
Waitlist Exceeds 50,000
Crisis pointAuditor General of Ontario noted OAP program wait times. Waitlist officially confirmed to have surpassed 50,000 children waiting without funded services.
CBC FOI Investigation Published
Official reportCBC News published investigation based on 18 months of OAP bi-weekly progress reports obtained via Freedom of Information. Revealed 88,175 children registered with only 20,666 funded.
| Year | Title | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Ford Government Elected | Program change | Progressive Conservative government elected. Campaign had promised to maintain autism services. Within months, program restructuring began. |
| 2/2019 | Flat-Rate Funding Announced | Funding change | Government announced a flat-rate funding model ($20,000/year or $5,000/year for school-age children) regardless of individual therapy needs. This replaced the previous needs-based IBI model. |
| 3/2019 | Largest Autism Protest in Ontario History | Public action | Thousands of parents and children descended on Queen's Park. Described as the largest autism protest in Ontario history. Government announced a policy review within days. |
| 10/2019 | Needs-Based Funding Promised | Government announcement | Government announced a return to needs-based funding. New OAP structure announced. Implementation timeline and details left unclear, with phased rollout stretching years. |
| 3/2020 | COVID-19: Services Suspended | Crisis point | In-person autism therapy services suspended across Ontario. Children already on long waitlists lost their spots in service. New registrations continued while funded service delivery stalled. |
| 2021 | Core Clinical Services Launch | Program change | New Core Clinical Services model launched. Funding range of $6,600 to $65,000 per year. Waitlist for the new service grew immediately as eligibility was extended. |
| 2023 | FAO Spending Plan Review | Official report | Financial Accountability Office reviewed MCCSS spending plan. Reported 70,176 registered with OAP and only 19,966 receiving core services. Funding gap documented. |
| 2023 | Waitlist Exceeds 50,000 | Crisis point | Auditor General of Ontario noted OAP program wait times. Waitlist officially confirmed to have surpassed 50,000 children waiting without funded services. |
| 3/2026 | CBC FOI Investigation Published | Official report | CBC News published investigation based on 18 months of OAP bi-weekly progress reports obtained via Freedom of Information. Revealed 88,175 children registered with only 20,666 funded. |
Budget Context
How OAP funding has changed relative to the growing waitlist.
| Fiscal Year | OAP Budget | Children Registered | Per-Child Equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | ~$600M | ~23,000 | ~$26,100 |
| 2023-24 | $779M | 70,176 | ~$11,100 |
| 2026-27 | $965M | 89,799 | ~$10,750 |
| FAO estimated need (2020 projection) | $1,350M | ~40,700 children (2020 estimate) | ~$33,200 |
| Budget figures: Ontario Budget 2026-27. FAO estimate for 2018-19 service levels with ~40,700 children. Per-child equivalent is illustrative — actual funding varies by individual need and service type. Current funding gap versus FAO estimate: $385M ($385M (FAO 2020 at 2018-19 levels vs. 2026-27 budget)). | |||
The funding gap
In 2020, the Financial Accountability Office estimated Ontario needed $1.35 billion per year to serve approximately 40,700 children at 2018-19 service levels. The 2026-27 budget of $965 million serves a waitlist of 89,799children — more than double the FAO's projected population. The FAO estimate is now widely considered a floor, not a ceiling.
Current funding gap versus FAO estimate: $385M ($385M (FAO 2020 at 2018-19 levels vs. 2026-27 budget)).
Provincial Context
Cross-provincial autism waitlist comparisons are difficult because provinces use different eligibility criteria, funding models, and tracking methods. The context below is directional only. Ontario is the only province that publicly reports a unified autism program registration count via FOI.
Limitation note:No other province publishes a unified autism waitlist count equivalent to Ontario's OAP registration data. Comparisons below reflect publicly available policy context, not equivalent registration counts. They are included to assist researchers and journalists contextualizing Ontario's program structure.
Ontario
Population ~14.8M. ~1 in 50 children with autism diagnosis.
- Waitlist status
- 89,799 registered; 69,166 waiting without funding (Mar 2026)
- Funding model
- OAP Core Clinical Services: $6,600–$65,000/year per child
Verified primary source. Excludes children awaiting diagnosis.
British Columbia
Population ~5.4M.
- Waitlist status
- BC Ministry of Children and Family Development does not publish a unified public waitlist count for autism services.
- Funding model
- Autism Funding: $6,000/year under age 6; $22,000/year ages 6–18 (as of 2023)
BC autism funding model differs significantly from Ontario. Comparable waitlist data not publicly available.
Alberta
Population ~4.6M.
- Waitlist status
- Alberta does not operate a province-wide autism waitlist equivalent to Ontario's OAP. Services delivered through FSCD program.
- Funding model
- Family Support for Children with Disabilities (FSCD): needs-based individualized funding
Different program structure makes direct comparison with Ontario OAP inappropriate. Included for policy context only.
Quebec
Population ~8.8M.
- Waitlist status
- CLSC and CIUSSS waitlists for autism assessment and services reported in some regions but no unified provincial count is published.
- Funding model
- Services delivered through regional health authorities. No unified direct-funding model comparable to OAP.
Quebec autism services are structurally different. No directly comparable provincial waitlist figure is publicly available.
Data Sources
Primary sources used on this page
SOURCE
Ontario government autism funding data shows waitlist jumped 21 per cent in 18 months
Government Source
CBC News • March 30, 2026 • Nicole Brockbank et al.
Primary source. CBC obtained 18 months of OAP bi-weekly progress reports via FIPPA. Data covers OAP progress reports through January 7, 2026; the current registration figures (89,799 registered / 20,633 funded / 69,166 waiting as of March 2026) are from the Ontario Autism Coalition FOI release CSS2026-0749 (March 4, 2026).
Last verified: 2026-04-29Verified 2026-04-29
SOURCE
MCCSS Spending Plan Review (2023-24)
Government Source
Financial Accountability Office of Ontario • 2024
Verified: 70,176 children registered with OAP as of 2023-24 fiscal year, with 19,966 receiving core services. Key anchor point for growth calculation.
Last verified: 2026-04-29Verified 2026-04-29
SOURCE
Ontario Autism Coalition — Historical Waitlist Tracking
Research Source
Ontario Autism Coalition • 2019–2026
Used for pre-2023 estimates and 2019 baseline figure (~23,000). OAC obtained multiple FOI releases tracking OAP registration growth.
Last verified: 2026-04-29Verified 2026-04-29
SOURCE
2026 Ontario Budget: Building Ontario
Government Source
Ontario Ministry of Finance • March 26, 2026
Source for the 2026-27 OAP budget allocation of $965 million.
Last verified: 2026-04-29Verified 2026-04-29
SOURCE
Autism Services in Ontario
Government Source
Financial Accountability Office of Ontario • 2020
Source for the estimated $1.35 billion annual funding needed to serve approximately 40,700 children at 2018-19 service levels. This 2020 FAO report forms the basis for the funding-gap analysis comparing current vs. estimated need.
Last verified: 2026-04-29Verified 2026-04-29
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Verified Facts
Facts cited on this page
89,799, children are registered in the Ontario Autism Program
23%, Only 20,633 children have active funding agreements — less than one in four
$965M, Ontario allocated to the Ontario Autism Program in 2026-27
WHO recommends accessible, community-based early interventions for children with autism — timely evidence-based psychosocial interventions improve communication and social engagement