FOI-Verified Data

Ontario Autism Waitlist Trends 2018–2026

Name: Ontario Autism Program Waitlist — Historical Trend Data 2018–2026
Creator: End The Wait Ontario
Published: 2026-05-26
License: https://www.endthewaitontario.com/terms
Keywords: ontario autism waitlist, OAP statistics, autism services ontario, waitlist trends, FOI data ontario

The OAP waitlist grew from approximately 23,000 children in 2019 to 91,974 in May 2026 — ~300% growth in seven years.

Registered (May 2026)

91,974

verified against MCCSS FOI data obtained by the Ontario Autism Coalition

Waiting without funding

71,263

77.5% of all registered

Growth since 2019

~300%

From ~23,000 to 91,974

Review the trend methodology

Read the trend with its confidence labels

The 2019 baseline is approximate, while later points are tied to named releases with their own reporting dates. The table omits years and measures that are not published in a comparable form; it does not create a forecast or promise. The latest source snapshot is May 13, 2026; this page was last reviewed in August 2026.

See source definitions

Key finding

Under the Ford government, the Ontario Autism Program waitlist grew from approximately 23,000 children at the time of the 2019 program redesign to 91,974 children by May 2026 — an increase of ~300%. During that same period, the administrative count used for the historical funded comparison increased by roughly 3,600. The current endpoint is 20,711 active Core Funding Agreements; that does not establish service receipt.

The 2019 baseline (~23,000) is approximate. The government did not publish exact real-time registration counts in 2019. The May 2026 figure (91,974) is verified via Ontario Autism Coalition FOI of the OAP bi-weekly progress report dated May 13, 2026.

Trend sources and confidence boundaries

MCCSS OAP progress-report snapshot, May 13, 2026. MCCSS, released through an Ontario Autism Coalition FOI request (July 2026)
Ontario government autism funding data shows waitlist jumped 21 per cent in 18 months. CBC News (March 30, 2026)
MCCSS Spending Plan Review (2023-24). Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (2024)
Ontario Autism Coalition — Historical Waitlist Tracking. Ontario Autism Coalition (2019–2026)
2026 Ontario Budget: Building Ontario. Ontario Ministry of Finance (March 26, 2026)
Autism Services in Ontario. Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (2020)

Year-by-Year Waitlist Data

Published OAP registration anchors from the approximate 2019 baseline to May 2026. Missing years and incompatible measures remain unavailable rather than interpolated.

Year	Total Registered	Waiting (Unfunded)	Funded	Budget ($M)	Confidence
2019 (approximate baseline)	23,000	—	—	—	Approximate
2023 (FAO reported)	70,176	—	—	—	Verified
2024 (mid-year FOI)	72,871	—	—	—	Verified
Jan 2026 (CBC FOI)	88,175	67,509	20,666	—	Verified
Mar 2026 (MCCSS FOI)	89,799	69,166	20,633	—	Verified
May 2026 (MCCSS/OAC FOI)	91,974	71,263	20,711	—	Verified
Sources: CBC News FOI (Jan 2026), FAO MCCSS Spending Plan Review (2023-24), Ontario Autism Coalition historical tracking. The table intentionally omits unsupported years and does not connect anchors as an interpolated annual series.

Growth Rate Analysis

How fast the waitlist is growing and what it means for children waiting today.

Since 2019 baseline

~300%

Growth in total OAP registrations since the April 2019 program redesign. From ~23,000 to 91,974.

Recent growth rate

+21%

Registrations grew 21% over an 18-month period (mid-2024 to January 2026), according to CBC News FOI data covering OAP progress reports.

What this page does not project

The current public snapshots do not provide a comparable throughput series for a defensible provincial forecast. We show dated anchors and measured historical change, but leave future totals unavailable rather than turning an inferred rate into a promise.

Key Policy Milestones

Policy decisions and program changes that shaped the waitlist trajectory from 2018 to present.

Ford Government Elected

Program change

Progressive Conservative government elected. Campaign had promised to maintain autism services. Within months, program restructuring began.

Flat-Rate Funding Announced

Funding change

Government announced a flat-rate funding model (20,000 dollars a year for children under 6, 5,000 dollars a year for school-age children, as announced in 2019) regardless of individual therapy needs. This replaced the previous needs-based IBI model.

Largest Autism Protest in Ontario History

Public action

Thousands of parents and children descended on Queen's Park. Described as the largest autism protest in Ontario history. Government announced a policy review within days.

Needs-Based Funding Promised

Government announcement

Government announced a return to needs-based funding. New OAP structure announced. Implementation timeline and details left unclear, with phased rollout stretching years.

COVID-19: Services Suspended

Crisis point

In-person autism therapy services suspended across Ontario. Children already on long waitlists lost their spots in service. New registrations continued while funded service delivery stalled.

Core Clinical Services Launch

Program change

New Core Clinical Services model launched. Funding range of $6,600 to $65,000 per year. Waitlist for the new service grew immediately as eligibility was extended.

FAO Spending Plan Review

Official report

Financial Accountability Office reviewed MCCSS spending plan. Reported 70,176 registered with OAP and only 19,966 receiving core services. Funding gap documented.

Waitlist Exceeds 50,000

Crisis point

Auditor General of Ontario noted OAP program wait times. Waitlist officially confirmed to have surpassed 50,000 children waiting without funded services.

CBC FOI Investigation Published

Official report

CBC News published investigation based on 18 months of OAP bi-weekly progress reports obtained via Freedom of Information. Revealed 88,175 children registered with only 20,666 funded.

Key Ontario Autism Policy Milestones 2018–2026
Year	Title	Type	Description
2018	Ford Government Elected	Program change	Progressive Conservative government elected. Campaign had promised to maintain autism services. Within months, program restructuring began.
2/2019	Flat-Rate Funding Announced	Funding change	Government announced a flat-rate funding model (20,000 dollars a year for children under 6, 5,000 dollars a year for school-age children, as announced in 2019) regardless of individual therapy needs. This replaced the previous needs-based IBI model.
3/2019	Largest Autism Protest in Ontario History	Public action	Thousands of parents and children descended on Queen's Park. Described as the largest autism protest in Ontario history. Government announced a policy review within days.
10/2019	Needs-Based Funding Promised	Government announcement	Government announced a return to needs-based funding. New OAP structure announced. Implementation timeline and details left unclear, with phased rollout stretching years.
3/2020	COVID-19: Services Suspended	Crisis point	In-person autism therapy services suspended across Ontario. Children already on long waitlists lost their spots in service. New registrations continued while funded service delivery stalled.
2021	Core Clinical Services Launch	Program change	New Core Clinical Services model launched. Funding range of $6,600 to $65,000 per year. Waitlist for the new service grew immediately as eligibility was extended.
2023	FAO Spending Plan Review	Official report	Financial Accountability Office reviewed MCCSS spending plan. Reported 70,176 registered with OAP and only 19,966 receiving core services. Funding gap documented.
2023	Waitlist Exceeds 50,000	Crisis point	Auditor General of Ontario noted OAP program wait times. Waitlist officially confirmed to have surpassed 50,000 children waiting without funded services.
3/2026	CBC FOI Investigation Published	Official report	CBC News published investigation based on 18 months of OAP bi-weekly progress reports obtained via Freedom of Information. Revealed 88,175 children registered with only 20,666 funded.

Budget Context

How OAP funding has changed relative to the growing waitlist.

Fiscal Year	OAP Budget	Children Registered	Per-child comparison
2019-20	~$600M	~23,000	Not comparable
2023-24	$779M	70,176	Not comparable
2026-27	$965M	91,974	Not comparable
FAO estimated need (2020 projection)	$1,350M	~40,700 children (2020 estimate)	Not comparable
Budget figures and FAO estimates describe different years, populations, and program measures. We do not divide a budget by registrations to create a per-child allocation. Current funding context: $385M ($385M (FAO 2020 at 2018-19 levels vs. 2026-27 budget)).

The funding gap

In 2020, the Financial Accountability Office estimated Ontario needed $1.35 billion per year to serve approximately 40,700 children at 2018-19 service levels. The 2026-27 budget of $965 million serves a registered cohort of 91,974 children — more than double the FAO's projected population. The FAO estimate is now widely considered a floor, not a ceiling.

Current funding gap versus FAO estimate: $385M ($385M (FAO 2020 at 2018-19 levels vs. 2026-27 budget)).

Provincial Context

Cross-provincial autism waitlist comparisons are difficult because provinces use different eligibility criteria, funding models, and tracking methods. The context below is directional only. Ontario is the only province that publicly reports a unified autism program registration count via FOI.

Limitation note: No other province publishes a unified autism waitlist count equivalent to Ontario's OAP registration data. Comparisons below reflect publicly available policy context, not equivalent registration counts. They are included to assist researchers and journalists contextualizing Ontario's program structure.

Ontario

Population ~14.8M. ~1 in 50 children with autism diagnosis.

Waitlist status: 89,799 registered; 69,166 waiting without funding (Mar 2026)
Funding model: OAP Core Clinical Services: $6,600–$65,000/year per child

Verified primary source. Excludes children awaiting diagnosis.

British Columbia

Population ~5.4M.

Waitlist status: BC Ministry of Children and Family Development does not publish a unified public waitlist count for autism services.
Funding model: Autism Funding: 6,000 dollars a year under age 6; 22,000 dollars a year ages 6-18 (as of 2023; confirm current amounts with the BC ministry)

BC autism funding model differs significantly from Ontario. Comparable waitlist data not publicly available.

Alberta

Population ~4.6M.

Waitlist status: Alberta does not operate a province-wide autism waitlist equivalent to Ontario's OAP. Services delivered through FSCD program.
Funding model: Family Support for Children with Disabilities (FSCD): needs-based individualized funding

Different program structure makes direct comparison with Ontario OAP inappropriate. Included for policy context only.

Quebec

Population ~8.8M.

Waitlist status: CLSC and CIUSSS waitlists for autism assessment and services reported in some regions but no unified provincial count is published.
Funding model: Services delivered through regional health authorities. No unified direct-funding model comparable to OAP.

Quebec autism services are structurally different. No directly comparable provincial waitlist figure is publicly available.

Data Sources

Evidence for this snapshot

SOURCE

MCCSS OAP progress-report snapshot, May 13, 2026

Government SourceTier 1

MCCSS, released through an Ontario Autism Coalition FOI request • July 2026

Current anchor: 91,974 registered, 24,417 enrolled, 20,711 active Core Funding Agreements and 71,263 without an active agreement as of May 13, 2026.

Last verified: 2026-08-10Verified 2026-08-10

SOURCE

Ontario government autism funding data shows waitlist jumped 21 per cent in 18 months

Government SourceTier 1

CBC News • March 30, 2026 • Nicole Brockbank et al.

Historical anchor. CBC obtained 18 months of OAP bi-weekly progress reports via FIPPA through January 7, 2026. The newer May 13, 2026 values come from the separate current source listed above, not CSS2026-0749, which ends March 4, 2026.